Creating a fool-proof selection program as well as finding the right entry requirements to test candidates is something the military, police, special ops, and fire fighter worlds constantly seek to perfect. I recently was asked the following question by a few friends who are either active duty or former Tactical Professionals (aka military, special ops, police, swat, and fire fighters):
Do you think there will ever be a measurable test or metric to predict the success of a candidate in Special Ops programs?
My unqualified short answer is… maybe? I think there are far too many variables to test to create a measurable metric to predict success in selection programs or advanced special operations training. Now, this does not mean we should stop looking and creating statistical analyses of those who succeed and fail, or testing out new ideas to improve student success. There is no doubt that finding better prepared students will save money, time, and effort, and it's worth remembering that much of the entry standards are based on those studies. The ability to measure someone's mental toughness (aka heart or passion) may be impossible, but there are groups making great strides with quantifying such intangibles.
Recently, Naval Special Warfare Center (BUD/S) did a three-year study on their SEAL candidates attending Basic Underwater Demolition / SEAL Training. If you are looking for the physical predictors to success, this is about as thorough of a study as I have ever seen to date.
The CSORT -- Computerized Special Operations Resiliency Test is another method of pre-testing candidates prior to SEAL Training -- while still in the recruiting phase. The CSORT is part of the entry process and has become a decent predictor of success and failure with a candidate's future training. Together with the combined run and swim times of the BUD/S PST (500yd swim, pushups, situps, pullups, and 1.5 mile run), a candidate is compared to previous statistics of candidates who successfully graduated.
Can You Even Measure Mental Toughness?
This is a debate that those in the business of creating Special Operators still have. In my opinion, the "test" is BUD/S, SFAS, Selection, SWAT Training, or whatever training that makes a student endure daily challenges for a long period of time. The body's stamina and endurance is equally tested for several days and weeks, as is one's mental stamina and endurance (toughness) in these schools. The school IS the test. Finding the best student -- now that is the challenge. Related Articles/ Studies:
Here is a study on general "Hardness" with respect to Army SF graduates. Some other intangible qualities of successful special operators. Some Science of Mental Toughness. Building Blocks of Mental Toughness. Training to Think While Stressed. Thinking under pressure is a common trait of successful operators.