Handicapping the AFC Race

Mike Florio - SportingNews.com

So I decided to properly bookend the topic by assessing the potential candidates for the postseason in the AFC.

Unlike the wide-open NFC, the AFC remains top heavy. But since I won't come close to hitting my minimum-word count if I write only about the two teams that seem destined to meet in the AFC title game, I'll set forth the ten teams that might have a chance if the two truly elite teams suffer enough injuries.

1. Patriots:

Amazingly, no one is talking about the Patriots.

And that's just fine with the Patriots. But it won't be fine with their opponents, who could see themselves on the wrong end of blowout scores that the Pats routinely administered in 2007.

Quarterback Tom Brady is back, and by all appearances, healthy. Running back Laurence Maroney is healthy. Running back Fred Taylor is motivated. Receiver Joey Galloway still has speed, and he'll see plenty of open space with defenses trying to corral Randy Moss and Wes Welker.

The defense likely will be more than good enough to complement a high-octane offense that will be hitting on all cylinders again in 2009.

Barring major injury, of course.

2. Steelers:

The last time the Steelers won the Super Bowl, they took an extended victory lap, starting 2-6 and missing the postseason.

This time around, coach Mike Tomlin won't let that happen. For starters, he's not entering a lame-duck last season, like Bill Cowher three years ago. And Tomlin likely is ready to make an example out of anyone who gets complacent.

As a result, they'll be right back in the thick of it again.

Indeed, it would be a surprise is the AFC's finalists are two teams other than the Patriots and the Steelers.

3. Chargers:

Each year seems like "the year" for the Chargers to bust through to the Super Bowl.

And this year is once again being described by many as "the year."

They've got the talent. The question is whether they have the coaching.

If this year isn't "the year," next year might be the year that a new coach arrives.

4. Colts:

The Colts are facing plenty of challenges as they break in a new head coach, a new defensive coordinator, a new offensive coordinator, and a new special-teams coordinator.

It's not as bad as it could have been, given that former offensive coordinator Tom Moore and former offensive line coach Howard Mudd will face no restrictions on their work as they become consultants.

But Peyton Manning is still there -- and as long as he is, the Colts will be competitive.

5. Ravens:

The big question for the Ravens is whether they can recover from the departure of defensive coordinator Rex Ryan and linebacker Bart Scott.

Chances are the defense will dip a bit. Another concern is whether the offense can do enough to overcome the decline on the other side of the ball.

It'll be a challenge, especially since opposing defenses will have had a full offseason to try to figure out how to confound and confuse quarterback Joe Flacco.

6. Titans:

On defense, the team needs to overcome the absence of defensive tackle Albert Haynesworth. On offense, the team needs to develop a real passing game.

Last year's regular season record probably was a little more gaudy than it should have been, and a one-and-done postseason experience might make it hard for them to dig out of the valley of zero and zero.

7. Dolphins:

The team that went from 1-15 to 11-5 will catch no one by surprise this season. And a tough early-season schedule could bring them back down to earth.

But the Parcells factor is strong, and the Dolphins likely will continue to be competitive.

Whether that's enough to get back to the playoffs remains to be seen.

8. Jaguars:

The up-and-down Jags are due to make it back to the playoffs in 2009, given last year's flameout.

The biggest question is whether tailback Maurice Jones-Drew can carry the load a full-time player.

The next biggest question is whether the revamped receiving corps can consistently catch passes.

If the answer to either question is no, coach Jack Del Rio could be done in Jacksonville.

9. Texans:

The Texans have never been to the playoffs. Owner Bob McNair has said he expects the string of futility to end.

On paper, it should. The offense is potent, and the defense is capable.

But health has been an issue. Quarterback Matt Schaub has missed ten games over the past two seasons. Receiver Andre Johnson has had knee trouble. And running back Steve Slaton will shatter into a few million pieces if they use him in 2009 like they did down the stretch in 2008.

So, yeah, the Texans should make it to the playoffs. For that reason alone, it's going to be harder than most believe it will be.

10. Jets:

The Jets nearly made the playoffs last year, with Brett Favre at quarterback. This year, the quarterback position is unsettled and, if Mark Sanchez wins the job, untested.

Of course, that didn't stop Matt Ryan or Joe Flacco in 2008.

So maybe the Jets can get it done, especially with an entertainingly fiery Rex Ryan now leading the charge.

11. Bengals:

It's easy to poke fun at the same old Bengals based on last year's pathetic 4-11-1 record. But quarterback Carson Palmer missed most of the season with an elbow injury.

Palmer is healthy again, receiver Chad Ochocinco is motivated, and the defense isn't as bad as people think.

The problem is that the Bengals have to deal with the Steelers and the Ravens in their own division. And the competition for wild-card berths in the AFC will be intense, as usual.

Still, the Bengals have a better shot than people realize.

12. Bills:

Buffalo fans are rejoicing, as the Bills are relevant for the first time since the Music City Miracle.

The presence of Terrell Owens could propel the offense toward success, if quarterback Trent Edwards can figure out how to handle him.

The trade of Pro Bowl left tackle Jason Peters undermines the notion that the team is doing whatever it must to win now, and a postseason berth looks to be longshot.

Mike Florio writes and edits ProFootballTalk.com and is a regular contributor to Sporting News. Check out PFT for up-to-the minute NFL news.

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