Allan Topol is a partner in a large Washington-based international law firm. He has a science and engineering degree from Carnegie Mellon, and a law degree from Yale University. For almost 40 years, he has been involved in issues at the height of the Washington power structure.
He is also a national bestselling novelist, using the thriller genre to explore international geopolitical and military issues. His new novel, ENEMY OF MY ENEMY, dealing with an American pilot shot down over Eastern Turkey and Russian nuclear weapons, was released February 1, 2005.
His 2001 novel, SPY DANCE, is about a former CIA agent on the run and Saudi Arabian oil. His 2003 novel, DARK AMBITION, deals with the corruption of power in Washington and China's threatening posture toward Taiwan. In January 2004, his new novel CONSPIRACY was released dealing with a foreign leader's attempt to influence an American presidential election and the possibility of renewed militarism in Japan.
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June 3 , 2005
[Have an opinion about the issues discussed in this column? Sound
off here.] The French people's vote on the EU constitution last Sunday was a truly historic event. I happen to be in Europe researching my next novel, but what happened in France has overshadowed everything else. Jacques Chirac's great vision, which opponents called a delusion, was for the nations of Europe to join together into a United States of Europe that would rival our own country, economically and even militarily.
In part of Chirac's vision, this powerful European Union would be dominated by France and Germany. Not surprisingly, that part of the vision met with serious opposition from other countries, and compromises were forced when a draft constitution was prepared. Under the ground rules to move forward with this enhanced EU, the constitution must be approved by all twenty-five members in order to take effect. Ratification will take place in member countries this spring.
In the weeks before the vote in France, French President Jacques Chirac pulled out all the stops to obtain a “yes” vote from the people. Acting as if this was a vote on Chirac personally, he campaigned long and hard with speeches on national television and around the country. Government ministers were ordered to do the same and barred from leaving the country. Chirac lined up support from the leading French newspapers.
Notwithstanding all of this effort, the French populace handed Chirac a humiliating defeat, voting “no” by 57 percent to 43 percent. The constitution now lies in tatters. It is unclear if even the current loose political union of the EU will survive. For sure, Washington need not fear a rival in Europe.
There are a number of factors that contributed to this result. To begin with, there is widespread discontent with the government's social and economic policies. Unemployment is at ten percent, being pushed up by corporate relocations. Spending-power has been eroding even among the employed.
The EU constitution was viewed as a great exacerbation to this situation. The French people deemed the long and cumbersome document -- 498 articles after all the compromises -- a threat to their health and other benefits. At the same time, the constitution cone-headed bureaucrats in Brussels would be able to impose huge economic costs on the already sagging French economy, in order to achieve uniformity among member states.
As we've seen repeatedly in American elections, economic fear and the concern about an uncertain future for voters and their families can be a powerful factor.
Here the economic fear had another component. There is a deep-seated apprehension among many French people for political integration with the culturally dissimilar people of Eastern Europe, and perhaps Turkey to follow. The worry is that “those people will overrun us,” as hordes move westward in search of jobs and a better life. Having traveled in the Czech Republic and Hungary this week, the French have something to worry about. There are a lot of enterprising personable people, who may come to try and take their jobs.
On this issue, the fear isn't simply that French jobs will be lost or that French farmers will lose their markets. Even more basic, France will no longer be French. A great homogenization will take place, moving all EU nations toward the least common denominator.
In this regard, Chirac and the other European leaders put the cart before the horse. In hindsight, they would have been better to seek approval of the constitution among only the hardcore states of Western Europe. After that, they could have focused on expanding the EU.
Along this same vein, even opening discussions with Turkey, a Muslim nation, although not promising the Turks membership, contributed to the negative vote. It plays to the deep-rooted apprehension and fear of Muslims in Western Europe, particularly after the Madrid train bombings and cruel assassination of Theo Van Gogh in Amsterdam.
At the same time, the French government never made an effective case for approval. It never convinced an overwhelming number of voters that their personal lives would be improved by full integration with twenty-four other nations.
Here is the ultimate irony. In addition to Chirac's poor performance in this election, recently German Chancellor Schroder suffered a sharp defeat in German provincial elections. Thus, the two opponents of the war in Iraq were rebuked by their people, while President Bush and Tony Blair were both re-elected.
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