Allan Topol is a partner in a large Washington-based international law firm. He has a science and engineering degree from Carnegie Mellon, and a law degree from Yale University. For almost 40 years, he has been involved in issues at the height of the Washington power structure.
He is also a national bestselling novelist, using the thriller genre to explore international geopolitical and military issues. His new novel, ENEMY OF MY ENEMY, dealing with an American pilot shot down over Eastern Turkey and Russian nuclear weapons, was released February 1, 2005.
His 2001 novel, SPY DANCE, is about a former CIA agent on the run and Saudi Arabian oil. His 2003 novel, DARK AMBITION, deals with the corruption of power in Washington and China's threatening posture toward Taiwan. In January 2004, his new novel CONSPIRACY was released dealing with a foreign leader's attempt to influence an American presidential election and the possibility of renewed militarism in Japan.
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May 11, 2005
[Have an opinion about the issues discussed in this column? Sound
off here.]
Ever since the outbreak of the war in Iraq, the situation has been like a gigantic roller coaster ride. There have been numerous euphoric high points such as the United States' declaration of victory, the capture of Saddam Hussein and the recent election. Each of these has been followed by a myriad of low points such as destruction in Fallujah, assassination of key officials and numerous destructive car bombs.
Looking ahead to the future is always precarious in such a fluid situation, but it's still necessary. The critical questions we have to ask is where are we now, and when will the United States begin to withdraw its troops? Is the glass half full, or half empty?
The current situation has many encouraging aspects. An Iraqi government has been formed. Iraqi security forces are expanding in size. So far at least, the new government, though dominated by the Shiites, is moderately secular. The Islamic fundamentalists are not calling the shots. The clerics like Ayatollah Sistani are being either reasonable or patient. On the other hand, the hard constitutional issues have not yet been resolved other than in an interim way.
We have to recognize that there are many courageous Iraqis willing to participate in the new government at the risk of their lives and those of their families. Young men are willing to step forward and serve in the security forces knowing that every vehicle they board may be targeted for destruction.
Also on the positive side, the Kurds have shown a willingness to be part of the government. They haven't decided to take their marbles and go home, opting to try and create a separate state. This would not only lead to a fissure of Iraq, but also create a huge problem for the United States with Turkey.
On the negative side, the Sunni community, second only to the Shiites in numbers, but first in wealth and power, has been unwilling to vote or join the government in any real numbers. Either intimidation has done its job, or they are holding out for a better deal. Without the Sunnis, a meaningful national government is not possible.
Meanwhile, the insurgency continues -- and if anything, it has been escalating in intensity. There are a number of disparate parties, who under any other circumstances would battle each other to the death. Here they prefer to make common cause against the United States and those who dare to establish the new Iraqi government. They include the Baathists from Saddam's old regime, who dream of a return to power, Iraqi Jihadists, and foreign fighters from around the Middle East allied with terrorist organizations like Al Qaeda. In all of these cases, the Syrian regime is doing everything possible to aid and abet the insurgents.
The undeniable fact is that the United States and its Iraqi allies are unable to quell the insurgency. Perhaps we lack adequate intelligence or sufficient troops, but we are not winning. The violence has not been contained. If we can't do the job along with the Iraqis, they will never be able to do it alone.
What that means is that there is no possible exit strategy for the United States military, if we insist on achieving our objective of a stable and peaceful Iraq with the three major communities all participating in the government, unless we quell the insurgency and gain Sunni participation. There may be a light at the end of this tunnel, but right now I don't see it.
Staying the course is fraught with peril. Last week, Richard Meyers, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, told Congress that the war in Iraq was taking a heavy toll on our military. Recruitment is down in all branches. We would have a difficult time conducting combat operations elsewhere in the world.
The insurgents no doubt believe that the longer this situation continues the more likely the American people are to reduce their support for the war. Iraq is not Vietnam, but some troublesome parallels have clearly emerged.
This week, the roller coaster turned upward again. A Marine task force took the battle to the insurgents in their staging area near the Syrian border. A hundred insurgents were killed and their infrastructure was damaged. It's a step in the right direction -- a meaningful victory that left people wondering why we didn't do it sooner.
One battle won't end this war. The insurgents have shown themselves to be resilient. Regrettably, we're in for a long hot summer for our troops in Iraq and for our leaders in Washington who have to defend the Iraqi policy.
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