Email this page to friends About Allan Topol Allan Topol is a partner in a large Washington-based international law firm. He has a science and engineering degree from Carnegie Mellon, and a law degree from Yale University. For almost 40 years, he has been involved in issues at the height of the Washington power structure. He is also a national bestselling novelist, using the thriller genre to explore international geopolitical and military issues. His new novel, ENEMY OF MY ENEMY, dealing with an American pilot shot down over Eastern Turkey and Russian nuclear weapons, was released February 1, 2005. His 2001 novel, SPY DANCE, is about a former CIA agent on the run and Saudi Arabian oil. His 2003 novel, DARK AMBITION, deals with the corruption of power in Washington and China's threatening posture toward Taiwan. In January 2004, his new novel CONSPIRACY was released dealing with a foreign leader's attempt to influence an American presidential election and the possibility of renewed militarism in Japan. Allan Topol contact info: Allan Topol Website Email Allan Topol Allan Topol Books: Spy Dance Dark Ambition Conspiracy Allan Topol Archives Military Opinions Index Discussion Board Have an opinion on this article? Sound off. Your Two Cents Submit your stories, news items, or a benefits update -- and help Military.com bring the best, most important stories to your fellow servicemembers, veterans, and family members. Contribute here

April 27, 2005

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For months we have been reading about “an Arab spring.” This term has become shorthand for the blossoming of democracy, and we are told democratic movements are shooting up like wild flowers in the Arab world. Not just in Iraq, where elections took place under the watchful eyes of American troops, but in Lebanon, Egypt and even Saudi Arabia.

The optimists claim that the old order of autocratic rule by monarchs and military strongmen is giving way to democratic governments that will be established as a result of elections. Implicit in all of this is the belief that moderates or liberal democrats will gain office. Thus, the new order will be better not only for the people in those countries, but also for the United States. On both counts we are sadly deluding ourselves. More likely, what we are seeing is a desert mirage.

Last week's elections in Saudi Arabia for seats on half of the kingdom's 178 municipal councils are illustrative of the new Arab democracy. This was the first election in Saudi Arabia in over thirty years.

In this great example of democracy, women were barred from voting or running as candidates. This makes me recall that when my novel Spy Dance appeared, describing the discrimination of women in Saudi Arabia, I received an email from someone purporting to be a Saudi woman, who told me that I was mistaken because women enjoyed full and equal rights in the desert kingdom. Not allowing women to participate in any aspect of this election process is a strange way of demonstrating equal rights.

The larger point, however, is that it dilutes the significance of the elections if those who run the country decide who can run for office. The mullahs in Iran have been masters of this little game. While there are periodic elections in Iran, only candidates approved by a committee picked by the ruling mullahs can run for office. This is hardly what we think of as democracy.

Hosni Mubarak is trying the same technique in Egypt. In an effort to placate President Bush and keep the flow of U.S. aid coming, Mubarak promised to conduct elections. The difficulty is that only Mubarak will decide who can run. You can be certain the candidates will not include anyone at odds with the current regime. The communists in Russia wrote the book on this technique.

This brings us to the second and even more troublesome aspect of the Saudi elections. The people -- I should say, men -- overwhelmingly cast ballots for Islamic activists over moderates.

The Islamic activists ran a slate of candidates known as the “Golden List.” These Islamic activists were much better organized, had enormous amounts of money at their disposal, and created grass roots organizations. They effectively used technology -- including cell phones and emails – to get out their message. They sought and received endorsements from respected religious leaders and Islamic scholars.

Their liberal opponents had neither the funds nor the organization to compete effectively. Television screens across the nations were blanketed by the Islamists. There was a subtle, but unmistakable message: if you are a good Muslim, you must vote for the Golden List.

Herein lies the future problem for the United States and its advocacy of democracy in the Arab world. We are assuming that moderates and liberals will win any truly democratic election. The more likely scenario, as the Saudi election demonstrates, is that the Islamists will prevail at bringing religious fanatics into office, and a new kind of repression toward women as well as those not in sympathy with the Golden List will emerge.

We have a real-life example of this development. Algeria actually had democratic elections a number of years ago. When the votes were being counted, it was clear that the Islamic party would win a resounding victory in the first round of the elections. The army intervened and blocked the second round. This led to a civil war with the issues still unresolved.

The lesson is clear. The Islamic parties within Arab nations have developed a deep structure among the people. Free elections mean that the parties will prevail with the upper class, and army will be ousted from power in the country. Usually these are the groups in greater sympathy with the United States.

Equally troublesome, these new Islamic regimes are likely to look east toward Iran for guidance. Part of message they will receive is virulent anti-Americanism. These new regimes are unlikely to be beacons of democracy and cooperation with the United States.

Some commentators have contended that, with this new Arab democracy, our problems will be over in that part of the world. They are deluding themselves. New crises are on the horizon.

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