Email this page to friends About Allan Topol Allan Topol is a partner in a large Washington-based international law firm. He has a science and engineering degree from Carnegie Mellon, and a law degree from Yale University. For almost 40 years, he has been involved in issues at the height of the Washington power structure. He is also a national bestselling novelist, using the thriller genre to explore international geopolitical and military issues. His new novel, ENEMY OF MY ENEMY, dealing with an American pilot shot down over Eastern Turkey and Russian nuclear weapons, was released February 1, 2005. His 2001 novel, SPY DANCE, is about a former CIA agent on the run and Saudi Arabian oil. His 2003 novel, DARK AMBITION, deals with the corruption of power in Washington and China's threatening posture toward Taiwan. In January 2004, his new novel CONSPIRACY was released dealing with a foreign leader's attempt to influence an American presidential election and the possibility of renewed militarism in Japan. Allan Topol contact info: Allan Topol Website Email Allan Topol Allan Topol Books: Spy Dance Dark Ambition Conspiracy Allan Topol Archives Military Opinions Index Discussion Board Have an opinion on this article? Sound off. Your Two Cents Submit your stories, news items, or a benefits update -- and help Military.com bring the best, most important stories to your fellow servicemembers, veterans, and family members. Contribute here

March 16, 2005

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China stunned the world on March 13th by enacting a law authorizing the use of force against Taiwan, if the nation moves toward formal independence. Article 8 states that China "shall employ non-peaceful means" in the event of Taiwanese actions that are not defined. This uncertainty gives the Chinese government wide latitude in deciding when to use force. Indeed, the legislation compels a military response by China.

There is nothing surprising about China's announcement that it regards Taiwan as a breakaway province, still a part of China. This has consistently been the Chinese position. What is surprising, is that Beijing decided to take this serious and provocative step at this precise moment.

Over the last several years, from time to time, the Taiwanese issue has come to the surface as one side or the other has tried to push away from the status quo, which provides for an ambiguous coexistence between China and Taiwan. In this situation, Taiwan is suspended somewhere between independence and being a Chinese province.

At times, some Taiwanese officials -- including current president Chen -- have indicated an intention to change the Taiwan constitution, or take other steps to move toward independence. These have been met with a strong and stern response from Beijing. When this has occurred, the United States has leaned hard on Taiwan, and the Taiwanese have consistently backed down. The recent reelection of President Chen gave rise to a number of such incidents. Each time, however, the United States was able to smooth over the conflict. On both sides, the prevailing view seemed to favor increasing the business and economic interaction between China and Taiwan, with the hope that over time the political differences would somehow face away.

In this regard, enormous progress was made toward reconciliation very recently. In the past, Beijing has been unwilling to permit direct flights between Taiwan and China. Thus, business people operating facilities on both sides of the strait had to take connecting flights to Hong Kong or some other intermediate point. Likewise for families seeking to be together for visits.

Remarkably, the two sides had reached a landmark agreement allowing nonstop passenger flights between the mainland and Taiwan during last month's Lunar New Year holidays. China had invited Taiwan to discuss similar flights during other holidays, and discussions were underway to authorize charter cargo flights. Thus, until this action from the Chinese legislature, enormous progress was being made. It appeared for the first time in years as if Beijing might be willing to let economic development flourish, and push political resolution of the Taiwanese issue to the back burner. That was all changed dramatically on March 13th. The question is -- why?

There are two possible explanations in my judgment. The first is, that this legislation is the manifestation of a deep split within the Chinese government, its ruling Communist party, and its military. Under this theory, after a considerable period of indecisiveness, the hardliners that prevailed in connection with Tianamen Square have now gained the upper hand. They are appalled by the extent of economic interaction between the mainland and Taiwan. In their view, these "facts on the ground" will ensure that over the long run, China will never regain control over Taiwan.

The hardliners are prepared to launch a war to regain the island. Under this analysis, the legislation is designed to evoke outrage in the Taiwanese, and encourage the government in Taipei to take steps that Beijing can claim are sufficient to trigger a military response.

China is prepared to launch its attack on short notice. Taiwan is the size of the state of Maryland. It has 23 million inhabitants. Thousands of Chinese missiles are pointed at the heart of Taiwan across a narrow strait. State of the art Chinese submarines and other vessels are prepared to attack the island and carry invading soldiers.

The hardliners in Beijing are trying to pick a fight. They would like to do it precisely now, when the United States is pinned down in Iraq and Afghanistan. Notwithstanding sharp words from Washington, it is questionable whether the United States Congress would approve still another military effort at this time, or that our own forces -- stretched so thin -- would be in a position to move effectively.

The second possible explanation is that this Chinese legislation is a direct response to last month's historic agreement between the United States and Japan, in which the two countries indicated that they would take joint action in the defense of Taiwan if necessary. Historical animosity between China and Japan, extending for hundreds of years and strongly exacerbated in the Second World War, still dominates the thinking in Beijing. The Chinese leaders view the United States-Japanese agreement as a strong provocation, and they are determined to respond.

Confirmation of this theory comes from statements immediately after the enactment of the legislation by Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao. Wen explicitly referred to the recent move by Japan to list Taiwan as a joint security concern it shares with the United States. Wen then compared the new Chinese law to anti-secession resolutions passed by the U.S. Congress before the Civil War, making it clear that China viewed the Taiwanese situation as comparable to the secession by the southern states from the Union. Wen added "we don't hope for foreign interference, yet. We are not afraid of it."

Immediately after the U.S. Japanese agreement, I warned in an article on Military.com that the United States was playing a dangerous game by provoking China with the US-Japan agreement. That prediction hit home even faster then I thought.

For the next several decades, the United States will be involved in an enormous economic conflict with China, as this rising giant in Asia seeks to displace the United States as the premier economic power in the world. Militarily, the Chinese are on the rise as well. It is strongly in the interest of all three parties -- the United States, China and Japan -- to avoid military conflict and continue economic development. However, national animosities and pride run deep. The possibilities of a miscalculation are enormous. Taiwan could easily be the flashpoint for a war that none of the parties want.

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