Email this page to friends About Allan Topol Allan Topol is a partner in a large Washington-based international law firm. He has a science and engineering degree from Carnegie Mellon, and a law degree from Yale University. For almost 40 years, he has been involved in issues at the height of the Washington power structure. He is also a national bestselling novelist, using the thriller genre to explore international geopolitical and military issues. His new novel, ENEMY OF MY ENEMY, dealing with an American pilot shot down over Eastern Turkey and Russian nuclear weapons, was released February 1, 2005. His 2001 novel, SPY DANCE, is about a former CIA agent on the run and Saudi Arabian oil. His 2003 novel, DARK AMBITION, deals with the corruption of power in Washington and China's threatening posture toward Taiwan. In January 2004, his new novel CONSPIRACY was released dealing with a foreign leader's attempt to influence an American presidential election and the possibility of renewed militarism in Japan. Allan Topol contact info: Allan Topol Website Email Allan Topol Allan Topol Books: Spy Dance Dark Ambition Conspiracy Allan Topol Archives Military Opinions Index Discussion Board Have an opinion on this article? Sound off. Your Two Cents Submit your stories, news items, or a benefits update -- and help Military.com bring the best, most important stories to your fellow servicemembers, veterans, and family members. Contribute here

February 23, 2005

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The recent assassination of former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Hariri was no surprise. In my new novel, Enemy Of My Enemy, a critical background issue is Syria's rape of Lebanon and the tight grip with which Damascus controls this once beacon of freedom in the Arab world. What the Syrians did to Hariri is precisely what my fictional bloodthirsty Syrian intelligence chief did to Layla's family in an equally savage way. Hariri's crime, like that of Layla's family, was merely to want the Lebanese people's freedom from Syrian domination.

When the Syrians wish to quell dissent, there is no limit to their brutality. Hafez Assad, the former Syrian ruler, killed tens of thousands of his own citizens and razed much of the city of Hama when some there dared to raise their voices in dissent. With Hariri's assassination, Hafez's son, the current Syrian ruler, demonstrated that he had learned his lessons well from Daddy while he was studying to be an optometrist.

The current Syrian ruler wasn't administering an eye test when he approved the assassination of Hariri. No mere sniper bullet for these Syrian thugs. It was a massive explosion that instantly killed Hariri, who was riding in an armor-plated car, and sixteen others including his bodyguards. Windows shattered a mile away. The bombsite was left with a crater ten feet deep and thirty feet wide.

The Syrian objective wasn't merely to kill Hariri. It was to intimidate all the Lebanese people who are yearning for an end to Syrian domination and to a revival of peace and prosperity. The Syrians want that crater to be a constant warning of what will happen to those who seek to throw off the yoke of tyranny. It is conceivable, although not likely, that this time the Syrians have gone too far.

It was approximately thirty years ago that Syrian troops began rolling into Lebanon. This country, once the banking and nightlife center for the Arab world, was engaged in another one of those ethnic struggles that have characterized its history. Christians, Muslims and Druse are forced to coexist in a tiny land mass. Historical enmities and struggles for power have made civil war inevitable.

Both countries were part of France's Middle Eastern colonial empire. So, when the Lebanese civil war erupted in the seventies, the Syrians -- with a meager standard of living, a military inferiority complex, and having been repeatedly pulverized by Israel -- looked westward. Like the classic bully, they turned their wrath on the smallest child of the class and exploited the Lebanese civil war for their own benefit.

Prior to the war, the Christians had controlled most of the Lebanese government, though their percentage of the population was shrinking relative to the Muslims. Druse allegiances in this crazy quilt of ethnicity were constantly shifting. For the Muslims, far weaker militarily than the Christians, the entrance of the Syrians, who were fellow Muslims, seemed like manna from heaven.

It was a classic case of the bodyguard taking over the house and terrorizing the family. I think that there was a Broadway play with this storyline once. If there wasn't, there should be.

But here's the new twist. For decades it was the Christians and sometimes the Druse who wanted the Syrians to leave, while Muslims remained mute. Suddenly, Sunni Muslims, led by Hariri, who was a revered figure, began raising their voices urging Syria to leave Lebanon.

Hariri was more than just another sectarian Lebanese politician. He had served as prime minister for ten of the past twelve years. He made billions as a contractor in Saudi Arabia and invested much of his personal fortune in rebuilding war torn Lebanon. He had a close relationship with Jacques Chirac.

Hariri's assassination brought Lebanese to the streets for an unprecedented protest. Over one hundred thousand marched in Beirut waving Lebanese flags and shouting, "Syria out." There is no doubt that television images of Iraqis voting contributed to the Lebanese desire for freedom.

The question now is whether anything will happen to change the political status quo in Lebanon. I am not optimistic. Lebanese dissidents are too weak militarily. The UN passes resolutions demanding that Syria leave, but does nothing to back them up. The United States talks about increased American sanctions aimed at Syria, but other nations will step in and fill the void.

With a different leadership, the French might try to form a coalition for a military effort in Lebanon like the United States did in Iraq. Under Chirac, that won't happen. Other Arab nations could step in and lean on Syria, but they won't.

With United States forces stretched thin in Iraq and having endured hostility in the Arab world, it is doubtful that the Bush administration will act militarily to expel the Syrians. We've already been burned a couple of times in Lebanon since the end of the Second World War.

So the only real chance is for the Lebanese to mount a guerilla campaign against Syria as third world countries did against colonial rulers. Ultimately this approach worked in India and Egypt. But the Syrians don't play by the same rules as the British. Any struggle is likely to be long and bloody.

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