Allan Topol is a partner in a large Washington-based international law firm. He has a science and engineering degree from Carnegie Mellon, and a law degree from Yale University. For almost 40 years, he has been involved in issues at the height of the Washington power structure.
He is also a national bestselling novelist, using the thriller genre to explore international geopolitical and military issues. His new novel, ENEMY OF MY ENEMY, dealing with an American pilot shot down over Eastern Turkey and Russian nuclear weapons, will be on sale February 1, 2005.
His 2001 novel, SPY DANCE, is about a former CIA agent on the run and Saudi Arabian oil. His 2003 novel, DARK AMBITION, deals with the corruption of power in Washington and China's threatening posture toward Taiwan. In January 2004, his new novel CONSPIRACY was released dealing with a foreign leader's attempt to influence an American presidential election and the possibility of renewed militarism in Japan.
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February 9, 2005
[Have an opinion about the issues discussed in this column? Sound
off here.]
To be sure, the primary impact of the Iraqi election will be felt in Iraq. The nation has taken a giant step -- albeit only the first of many others which must also be taken -- toward the creation of a democratic nation. Shiites, Sunnis and Kurds are all busily assessing what the election means for each of their communities.
However, there are enormous consequences that extend well beyond Iraq. These impacts are being felt throughout the Middle East, Europe and back in the United States.
Prior to the election, the view was being expressed by some in the Middle East and trumpeted by the American media that elections and democracy are inconsistent with Islam. For example, the Washington Post reported in on January 24 that the insurgent leader Abu Msab Zarquawi declared that democracy is an "evil principle" being foisted on the Iraqi people by "crusader harlots." Three days later the most influential paper in our nation's capital had a long article presenting the view of Iraqi tribal leaders that free elections were inconsistent with Shiite traditions and their religious structures.
Articles along these lines were appearing so frequently that I began to have a tiny bit of doubt as to whether the United States was right in seeking to nurture a democratic government for Iraq. Maybe we were modern-day crusaders seeking to impose Judeo-Christian values and Jeffersonian ideals on people whose own culture called for something quite different. Either a religious hierarchy or an autocrat -- a new Saddam lite.
Happily, the huge turnout of Iraqis to vote dispelled those doubts. Islam is not incompatible with democracy. Nor can we say that Middle Eastern people who have long suffered under tyranny do not want self-government.
This may have been a great result for the United States in Iraq, but it's causing lots of discomfort among the rulers of two of America's closest so-called allies in the Middle East. Namely Egypt and Saudi Arabia. I have no doubt that we have hastened the inevitable end of Mubarak and his cronies as well as the House of Saud. Whether this is good or bad for the Unites States depends on who will be swept into power on the tails of the popular unrest that has been building in both countries before the Iraqi elections.
The mullahs in Iran have taken notice of what took place in Iraq. If Saddam could be swept out of power, they may be next. Let's see if they soften their approach toward the United States.
Europe is a different matter. Here I see only positive benefits. The rift between the United States on the one hand, and France and Germany on the other had gotten totally out of control over the Iraqi war. Yes, many Americans love to hate the French, and many French people love to hate the Americans. But we face numerous common problems such as a declared war by Islamic terrorists, the return to autocracy in Russia, the need for a reliable source of imported oil, the reality of a powerful China, and the need for stable world currency and economy, only to mention a few. We're like an old married couple, who had better figure out how to get along because both wolves and creditors are at our door.
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Happily, both sides have shown a willingness to use the Iraqi election as the basis for, if not a "kiss and make up," at least a polite handshake, which is a long way from where we were a month ago. Both French and German leaders have offered congratulations to President Bush and announced a willingness to work with the United States in helping to stabilize Iraq. Bush for his part has resisted the temptation to gloat and make our partners in the Atlantic alliance grovel. Both sides were looking for a way out of their impasse. The elections provided it.
Finally, there has been political fallout in the United States. Hard-core Bush haters will not alter their view of our president. However, some Americans who were on the fence about the Iraqi war are, after the election, leaning toward the notion that getting rid of Saddam Hussein was a benefit for the Iraqi people. That was the message conveyed by millions of Iraqis who participated for the first time in the political process.
Bottom line, spring came early to Washington this year. On January 30th, to be precise. When Iraqis turned out in huge numbers to vote.
© 2005 Allan Topol. All opinions expressed
in this article are the author's and do not necessarily reflect those
of Military.com.
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