Email this page to friends About Allan Topol Allan Topol is a partner in a large Washington-based international law firm. He has a science and engineering degree from Carnegie Mellon, and a law degree from Yale University. For almost 40 years, he has been involved in issues at the height of the Washington power structure. He is also a national bestselling novelist, using the thriller genre to explore international geopolitical and military issues. His new novel, ENEMY OF MY ENEMY, dealing with an American pilot shot down over Eastern Turkey and Russian nuclear weapons, will be on sale February 1, 2005. His 2001 novel, SPY DANCE, is about a former CIA agent on the run and Saudi Arabian oil. His 2003 novel, DARK AMBITION, deals with the corruption of power in Washington and China's threatening posture toward Taiwan. In January 2004, his new novel CONSPIRACY was released dealing with a foreign leader's attempt to influence an American presidential election and the possibility of renewed militarism in Japan. Allan Topol contact info: Allan Topol Website Email Allan Topol Allan Topol Books: Spy Dance Dark Ambition Conspiracy Allan Topol Archives Military Opinions Index Discussion Board Have an opinion on this article? Sound off. Your Two Cents Submit your stories, news items, or a benefits update -- and help Military.com bring the best, most important stories to your fellow servicemembers, veterans, and family members. Contribute here

February 4, 2005

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"Anyone who is optimistic about the Middle East is a fool," a top ranking American official once told me. But hope springs eternal, and I am almost always willing to see the glass half full. So here goes.

At the very same time that the American media reported on what happened in the Iraqi election, pundits and editorial writers began harping on the problems we face. Even the French and German governments were more gracious and upbeat. In public announcements they recognized the January 30th Iraqi election for what it was: A monumental event. A stunning victory for the much maligned President Bush and his Pentagon brain trust.

To be sure, major problems of nation building must be faced. The Sunnis have to be drawn into the government. The insurgents have to be stopped. Flush with electoral success, the Shiite clerics can't start dreaming about a theocracy. The Kurds have to abandon their goal of an independent nation. We have to find a way to begin bringing some of our troops home. And there are many other equally daunting problems. But couldn't we have at least enjoyed our success for one day?

We want instant gratification. It doesn't happen in the real world. We understand that Rome wasn't built in a day, but some expect Iraqi democracy to be. The elections are an excellent first step - inconceivable only months ago. There may be a light at the end of the tunnel that isn't a train bearing down on us.

Move a relatively short distance to the west, and for the first time in several years, there is progress on the Israeli Palestinian front. Mahmoud Abbas faces a horrendous task of building institutions, and with it, gaining the people's confidence for a society which Arafat totally demolished with a combination of corruption and his senseless intifada.

Even with his decisive electoral victory, Abbas begins from a weak position. Hamas and other terrorist groups supported by Iran are heavily armed and unwilling to accept a realistic compromise with Israel. The Palestinian security force is inadequate in numbers and in weapons to curb the militants.

Facing these realities, Abbas opted for persuading the militants to accept a temporary cease-fire rather than trying to strip them of their weapons, which would have led to a civil war. At the same time, Abbas is focusing on restructuring the Palestinian security services and reforming the economic and educational structure of the society.

Most importantly, Abbas has moved to resume discussions with Israeli officials, first privately and then publicly, about security and other issues. Already, Muhammad Dahlan, a former security chief, and confidante of Abbas has met with Israeli defense minister Shaul Mafoz at a Tel Aviv hotel. A meeting between Abbas and Sharon is being discussed for about February 8. The significance of Abbas's willingness to have constructive discussions directly with Israel, without the use of intermediaries from the United States or Egypt cannot be overestimated.

In return, Israeli Prime Minister Sharon has responded in a positive way. Israel is prepared to hand over security control to the Palestinians not only in Gaza, where a total Israeli pullout is planned, but also in several West Bank cities. Sharon has been reinforcing these steps with unusually upbeat rhetoric. The old hardliner is speaking about the possibility of a "historic breakthrough" between Israel and the Palestinians. Sharon is not only praising Abbas, but has announced that Israel would halt offensive military operations in Gaza.

For the Palestinians, the four years of the intifada were a disaster. With the new leadership of Abbas and Dalhan signaling a shift toward peaceful resolution of the issues, progress can be made.

Outsiders, including the United States, should let the parties grope toward their own agreements as Sadat and Begin did, and as the Israelis and Jordanians have done more recently. Those European governments who want to help can help fund the rebuilding of the Palestinian infrastructure.

Everyone must bear in mind that progress will take time. The enmity is deep. The wounds still fresh. Please, no grand peace conferences at Camp David as President Clinton did with Barak and Arafat. Recognize that all gains are precarious and often can be impeded by an assassin's bullet.

Despite all of this, there is reason for optimism. For the first time, a few rays of sunlight are cracking through the gloomy clouds that have hung over this region for so long like the shroud of death.

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