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H. Thomas Hayden
recently concluded over 35 years of service,
which included the Agency for International
Development, the Marine Corps, defense industry
and the Pentagon. His specialties are Intelligence,
Counterinsurgency Operations, Counter-terrorism,
and Joint Concepts Development and Experimentation.
His Marine Corps assignments have included
command of two separate battalions; AC/S G-2,
4th MARDIV & AC/S G-2 FMFEurope; Branch Head,
HQMC, Special Operations and Low Intensity
Conflict (SO/LIC); Special Assistant to the
Assistant Secretary of Defense for SO/LIC;
and, Senior Program Analysts at HQMC with
the Joint Staff and DoD at the Pentagon. Overseas
assignments included Vietnam, Japan & Okinawa,
Europe, Central America, Saudi Arabia and
Kuwait, Somalia, Singapore, Philippines, and
Colombia. He has an MBA (Pepperdine) and an
MA in International Relations (University
of Southern California). He has written two
books and is working on a third.
Thomas
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June 30, 2005
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How long will it take for China to become the next superpower in the world and the US to become checkmated in the Far East?
China's new assertiveness in the world comes from bids to acquire U.S. appliance manufacturer Maytag and Oil Company Unocal. Beijing recently test fired its most
advanced and longest-range intercontinental missile, the JL-2. There have been some protests in the U.S. Congress, but seemingly only ambivalence from the Administration.
In a report from “Asia Times On Line,” on June 30, 2005, Michael Weinstein stated that following the acquisition in May of IBM's personal computer business by China's Lenovo Group, the bid for Maytag by Haier America Trading -- the U.S. arm of appliance giant Haier -- and the move to acquire Unocal by China National Offshore Oil Company (CNOOC) mark a new stage in Beijing's export-driven strategy of economic development that is geared to make China an "all-round" great power with state-of-the-art industries in all strategic sectors.
Weinstein added that the test of the JL-2 missile, which has a 6,000 mile (9,656 kilometer) range, enhances China's military capabilities in order to make the country the dominant power in Far East and Southeast Asia, gradually eroding U.S. influence.
All of Beijing's political, economic and military moves show that Beijing's geo-strategy is firmly in place, and that the Chinese political rulers are confident the strategy is working.
China is building its military forces faster than U.S. intelligence and military analysts expected, prompting concerns that Beijing will attack Taiwan in the next few years. Some opinion commentators say that China will attack Taiwan around 2010-2015.
China's military buildup of new weapon systems, such as advanced warships, new Russian submarines, long range missiles with maneuverable warheads designed to defeat U.S. missile defenses, must be a sobering experience for all those in Washington who are mindlessly focused on the Middle East. Open news sources and reported intelligence analysis show that China has stepped up military exercises involving amphibious assaults, which can only be a sign that China is preparing for an attack on Taiwan.
Every year, the Chinese navy conducts a major naval exercise in the South China Sea, where all fleets leave ports from Shanghai to Hong Kong. Many sail past Taiwan. Upon completion of the “exercise,” the fleet heads north returning to home ports with many sailing straight past Taiwan through what used to be called the Formosa Straits.
It doesn't take a lot of imagination to see the potential for the Chinese fleet to turn right toward Taiwan instead of returning to homeports. How much reaction time would the US have to assist Taiwan -- hours or days?
According to Bill Gertz, writing for “Insight Magazine,” June 26, 2005, China's economy has been growing at a rate of at least ten percent for each of the past ten years, providing the country's military with the needed funds for modernization. He added that the combination of a vibrant centralized economy, growing military might, and increasingly fervent nationalism has transformed China into what some unnamed “defense officials” view as a new fascist state.
"We may be seeing in China the first true fascist society on the model of Nazi Germany, where you have this incredible resource base in a commercial economy with strong nationalism, which the military [is] able to reach into and ramp up incredible production," according to Gertz's sources.
Then there is China's extensive spy network in the US.
David Szady, Chief of FBI Counterintelligence Operations, is reported to have said that the Chinese use thousands of Chinese visitors, students and businessmen to gather data mostly from open sources or many unclassified documents. He said that there have been over 150,000 students, 300,000 diplomats, and delegations -- not counting the large number of tourist visitors to the US. Additionally, Szady says that China uses 3,200 front companies with links to the Chinese military to obtain information, equipment, and technology.
From time to time there are reports of protests and riots in rural China, fueled by corruption and the widening wealth gap, but Chinese authorities are quick to quash dissent and preserve stability.
Chen Yonglin, who was until recently a senior political officer at the Chinese Consulate in Sydney, Australia, said in an interview that China's communist leaders view the United States as their main enemy and are working around the world to undermine U.S. alliances.
Chen confirmed that China is engaged in large-scale intelligence-gathering activities in the United States that have netted large amounts of confidential U.S. government documents.
"The United States is considered by the Chinese Communist Party as the largest enemy, the major strategic rival," Mr. Chen told The Washington Times in a telephone interview from Australia, where he is in hiding after breaking with Beijing in May.
The US needs to pay more attention to our own strategic interest in the world. Chinese businesses have purchased large warehouses and shipping docks at both ends of the Panama Canal. Chinese-flagged ships or foreign-owned shipping carry much more international trade than U.S. shipping. China is actively courting many U.S. antagonists like Syria and Iran. South Korea is becoming friendlier with North Korea and China. Japan remains then only staunch ally of the US against any Chinese expansionism. Additionally, believe it or not, the Vietnamese hate the Chinese more than they do Americans and there may be room for some détente there.
China's continuing advancements could bring a “cold war” conflict between Beijing and Washington closer to confrontation. While the US tries to hold back Chinese expansion, even if that is possible, it only points to a high probability of destabilizing US economic and military alliances in the Far East. However, doing nothing only makes the possibility of Beijing's geo-strategic plans more likely to succeed.
We should look for Beijing to proceed confidently on its course and for Washington to be incapable of mounting any effective resistance.
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© 2005 H. Thomas Hayden. All opinions
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