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H. Thomas Hayden
recently concluded over 35 years of service,
which included the Agency for International
Development, the Marine Corps, defense industry
and the Pentagon. His specialties are Intelligence,
Counterinsurgency Operations, Counter-terrorism,
and Joint Concepts Development and Experimentation.
His Marine Corps assignments have included
command of two separate battalions; AC/S G-2,
4th MARDIV & AC/S G-2 FMFEurope; Branch Head,
HQMC, Special Operations and Low Intensity
Conflict (SO/LIC); Special Assistant to the
Assistant Secretary of Defense for SO/LIC;
and, Senior Program Analysts at HQMC with
the Joint Staff and DoD at the Pentagon. Overseas
assignments included Vietnam, Japan & Okinawa,
Europe, Central America, Saudi Arabia and
Kuwait, Somalia, Singapore, Philippines, and
Colombia. He has an MBA (Pepperdine) and an
MA in International Relations (University
of Southern California). He has written two
books and is working on a third.
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February 10, 2005
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There is an old proverb that goes something like this, "Be careful what you ask for because you might just get it."
The Administration and the Pentagon wanted "free elections" in Iraq. They also wanted a secular form of government, which means a democracy with a parliamentarian form of National Assembly. Well, they got their elections, but will they get their secular form of government? I do not think so.
The spiritual leaders of Iraqi Shiites who are surely set to dominate the new government and constitutional assembly, have demanded a major say for Islam in the government. Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani and other top Shiite clerics have made a radical demand that the constitution must refer to Islam as the sole source of legislation.
Ayatollah Sistani is the spiritual leader and guiding light of the United Iraqi Alliance, the coalition of Shiite parties that have a demanding lead in the vote count after Iraq's historic January 30 election. The new national assembly is to write a new constitution and the role of Islam has been at the heart of months of debate between rival parties and the "Interim" government as well as by U.S. officials.
A statement released last Sunday by Sheikh Ibrahim Ibrahimi, a representative of Grand Ayatollah Mohammad Ishaq al-Fayad, one of the five key marja, or Shi'ite religious leaders, spelled out the demand for Islamic law.
Ibrahimi's statement included the following, "All of the ulema (clergy) and marja, and the majority of the Iraqi people, want the national assembly to make Islam the source of legislation in the permanent constitution and to reject any law that is contrary to Islam." According to the clerics, "The marja has priorities concerning the formation of the government and the constitution."
Soon after the Ibrahimi statement, it was reported that Grand Ayatollah Sistani backed the demand.
I would bet that the influence of Islam on a potential new Iraqi government headed by Shi'ites was not even a minor consideration when the invasion of Iraq was planned. Also, the long-range consequences of a change in government were probably never understood by the Pentagon or the "neocons." I even wonder if the White House or any government agency even gave a few minutes consideration to the deep religious connections of Iran to the Shi'ites in Iraq, or what would happen when the war was turned over to the majority of the voting population of Iraq -- 60% Shia?
L. Paul Bremer III, a man not normally known for his wisdom or correctness of actions, said that the final version of the constitution should see Islam as "a source" of legislation rather than the sole source. Something about historical ignorance or a head in the sand comes to mind.
I wonder why Bremer never thought that the 500,000-man army he disbanded could have been a source of the new Iraqi army rather than the sole source.
The Iraqi Sunni ayatollahs have long voiced their intentions for Islamic law. Early in the L. Paul Bremer occupation administration the clerics demanded that women be required to wear head coverings along with their long robes. Bremer, in his infinite wisdom of Islamic culture, ignored the demands and said that women have equal rights.
This was easier said than done under the new Islamic Shi'ite government.
Over 60% of the Iraqi population of 26 million is Shi'ite. The Iraqi Sunnis, making up 20%, mostly boycotted the elections. Kurds, who are mostly Sunni and 20% of the population, voted in large numbers but they will not support any Arab Sunni candidates. Also, the Kurds are probably holding their cards for a semi-autonomous region. It now seems that a Kurdish party is in second place for the 275-seat National Assembly.
Two Sunni groups now want to "help" write the new Iraqi constitution. The Muslim Scholars Association and the Iraqi Islamic Party have obviously had visions of the future if they are left out of the process and are now trying desperately to catch up.
Interestingly, it was the Shi'ites who boycotted earlier elections after the British mandate, 1920-1932, which gave power to the Sunnis. They might have learned a lesson.
Brig. Gen. Jeffery Hammond, USA, Deputy Commander, 1st Cavalry Division, last week said the most intelligent thing that I have heard from an American military commander, "Our ticket out of here is the Iraqi security forces and (providing) essential services."
Another interesting news item said that the insurgents number 15,000-17,000 including fighters and supporters with over 7,000-10,000 being former Iraqi Republican Guards and Saddam loyalists. This is a far greater number, and probably more realistic, than the number provided by the Commander of U.S. Central Command, just last December.
The January 30 elections were for a Constitutional Assembly, and will elect a new prime minister to write a constitution that will lead to "final elections" by the end of 2005. Between now and the end of 2005, there will still be an insurgency against the Americans and the Iraqis who support a regime change. There is still much fighting ahead.
The January 30 ballot could be a turning point in the Iraqi insurgency, but only if the new government and the Coalition can rethink their failing strategy.
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© 2005 H. Thomas Hayden. All opinions
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