H. Thomas Hayden
recently concluded over 35 years of service,
which included the Agency for International
Development, the Marine Corps, defense industry
and the Pentagon. His specialties are Intelligence,
Counterinsurgency Operations, Counter-terrorism,
and Joint Concepts Development and Experimentation.
His Marine Corps assignments have included
command of two separate battalions; AC/S G-2,
4th MARDIV & AC/S G-2 FMFEurope; Branch Head,
HQMC, Special Operations and Low Intensity
Conflict (SO/LIC); Special Assistant to the
Assistant Secretary of Defense for SO/LIC;
and, Senior Program Analysts at HQMC with
the Joint Staff and DoD at the Pentagon. Overseas
assignments included Vietnam, Japan & Okinawa,
Europe, Central America, Saudi Arabia and
Kuwait, Somalia, Singapore, Philippines, and
Colombia. He has an MBA (Pepperdine) and an
MA in International Relations (University
of Southern California). He has written two
books and is working on a third.
[Have an opinion on this column? Sound off in the discussion
forum.]
"Dirty War," an HBO movie produced by BBC, is well worth watching. It will appear on PBS soon but without the two second nude scene of a woman being washed down in a decontamination unit. The movie is about a terrorist group preparing to make a "dirty bomb" -- radiological material with high explosives -- then detonating it in downtown London and the emergency response units in action. It is basically well done, but has a number of holes, not the least of which is a concern for the fire department hosing down ground zero and the decontamination water being washed into the city sewer system.
In my opinion, the main terrorist threat to the U.S. has to be a Weapon of Mass Destruction (WMD), and was described by Osama Bin Laden to be more deadly than the 9/11 attacks. To me that means a dirt bomb or a stolen former Soviet nuclear bomb.
The public and first responders must not confuse the numerous threats that are out there. These are what I call terrorists, criminals and crazies.
Someone is always trying to poison a water system somewhere, someone is
always blowing up power lines, and illegal aliens are always trying to sneak in to the U.S. Dangerous materials can be found in many places, airline passengers are always trying to carry concealed weapons, and fuel trucks are always being stolen -- especially considering the price of gasoline these days.
What we have done in Afghanistan and Iraq has not destroyed Al Qaeda. A safe bet would be that there are now more Al Qaeda members today than before 9/11. We have many of Bin Laden's leaders in custody, but there will be more energetic and resourceful insurgent terrorists to take their place.
Are we prepared for what is to come?
President George Bush's administration has made great leaps forward. There are many success stories, but let me talk about what remains to be done.
First, we need better intelligence collection inside the U.S. We need better "counter-intelligence." Here is our major weakness. There is an inherent systemic problem in law enforcement, in that they have not had much counterintelligence training. The "Terrorist Threat Integration Center" is a start, but it needs to be more accountable. It needs a counterintelligence arm, and most of all it needs to create or receive more "actionable intelligence" that can be acted upon.
Second, we need to look at more intelligence and counterintelligence training at regional training centers.
Third, we need a better organizational effort at the Department of Homeland Security.
Fourth, we need new standards for national and local agencies that start by approaching the threat, building indications and warning paradigms and then commence with emergency response and recovery. Setting standards is the one real step to helping Congress focus on where to invest the taxpayer's dollars.
Fifth, the cities of the U.S. are now the "rear areas" of the global fight against terrorism, and we need to fund, organize, train and exercise to stop the threat.
It has been reported that up to 40-50 nuclear bombs are missing from the old Soviet Union. They are what are called "suitcase bombs" or Atomic Demolition Munitions -- ADMs.
What could be the possible targets -- Washington, D.C., NYC, Jacksonville during Super Bowl? Houston for economic impact or Dallas for psychological impact?
I would like to touch on what everyone can do to be prepared for emergencies.
First and foremost, HAVE A PLAN. Plan for your family, pets and important personal property. Talk about the plan. For example, what would you do if one family member is not home and may not get home when disaster strikes?
Plan to have a point of contact in another state for all to call. There should be a friend or relative who can be the one for all to call to pass or receive information on all family members. Plan where to meet if you have to evacuate your home and cannot get home. And, of course, have emergency supplies to live three weeks without going out of your home.
Second, be prepared for worse case scenarios -- detonation of a nuclear device such as a "dirty bomb" or a military bomb. Radiological materials are everywhere -- hospitals (x-ray machines), some research labs, some food processing plants, nuclear power plants (spent fuel rods), smoke detectors, etc.
Know the prevailing wind in your area. If you are down wind (wind blowing in your direction) and you are near an explosion, you need to move fast. If close by, move at right angles to the wind. If you are up wind (wind blowing away from you) you may not have to move until directed by emergency response authorities. Follow the directions of the emergency broadcast on the radio or TV.
Third, chemical or biological weapons are not very effective unless they have a sophisticated dispensing device (e.g. a crop duster aircraft). Chemical weapons can be dissipated in hot weather and are not very effective in cold weather. This does not include dangerous infectious diseases like small pox or the plague. If notified of a serious infectious disease in your area, take all precautions and/or action as notified by the proper authorities.
One last comment: I would like to say that what we face today is not science fiction or scare tactics to sell newspapers. The threat and the dangers to our society are real and we need to better prepared.
