'The Enemy has Gone to Ground'

A scorching desert littered with bombs, little contact, an invisible enemy: the Marines who descended on Taliban bastions in southern Afghanistan will have to face guerrilla tactics proven against the Soviets, an analyst says.

"Nawa is quiet, too quiet," commanding officer of the operation, Brig. Gen. Larry Nicholson, said of the town where some of the 4,000 Marines involved had deployed Thursday at the start of the assault in Helmand province.

"The enemy has gone to ground," he said.

By Sunday, four days into the first military test of President Barack Obama's new strategy for Afghanistan, the Marines had faced little resistance except in Mian Poshteh where a U.S. officer said 200 battled about 40 Taliban.

This was even though they had pushed into areas where the government in Kabul had little or no control, and where the Taliban had in some cases established a parallel administration.

Dutch Maj. Gen. Mart de Kruif, commander of about 30,000 NATO-led troops in the region, estimates there are 10,000 to 18,000 Taliban fighters in volatile southern Afghanistan.

"When guerrilla fighters see that the enemy is bigger in number and facilities, have an upper hand on the ground and in the air, all they do is let the enemy take over," said Afghan analyst Waheed Mujda.

"The tactic behind guerrilla war is simply to exhaust the powerful enemy, make it time-consuming and expensive for them to carry on."

The Taliban militia itself admits that it cannot take on so many men in direct combat.

"We are trying not to engage with them too soon because there are a lot of them and they would use air force in which case there will be civilian casualties," spokesman Yousuf Ahmadi told AFP.

The fighters were using "guerrilla clashes," he said. "Our men are among the people."

"Significant resistance is not being seen," interior ministry spokesman Zemarai Bashary told reporters in Kabul Sunday. However, mines were a threat and had already killed two policemen on Saturday, he said.

Homemade bombs -- improvised explosive devices (IEDs) in security jargon -- have killed three British soldiers in a similar operation further north since Wednesday.

A Marine and another British soldier were killed in insurgent fire, the military said.

None of the forces involved in the massive operation issued casualty tolls for the insurgents. "We don't know," Bashary said.

"The Taliban do not have the ability to face such a big force and power," defence ministry spokesman General Mohammad Zahir Azimi told AFP, adding the security forces were being slowed down by the militants' roadside bombs and mines.

Azimi said there was always the risk that militants would merely hide their weapons and melt into the community as ordinary villagers, while resorting to bomb attacks and other guerrilla tactics.

But by taking control of their strongholds, "we basically break their chain of command and control, we disrupt their supply routes, we deny them the opportunity to gather and group together," Azimi said.

"The bottom line is we will take the secure ground they have from them and break their network."

The joint forces had a three-phase security plan to keep insurgents out of areas they take, he said.

International troops would help the Afghan forces hold these areas; they would withdraw when the Afghan army and police were strong enough; and the army would gradually pull out, leaving police in place.

"This will take some five to six months after the end of the operation," Azimi said.

Anlayst Mujda believed the Tailban still would be able to continue with their guerrilla methods which have been seen in previous Afghan conflicts.

"They attack the isolated security posts, the district headquarters and others, take control of them briefly, take weapons and money and food, and whatever they can," the analyst said.

"They basically feed off the expenses of the enemy and go away."

The Afghan mujahideen who fought off the Soviet invaders in the 1980s did the same, he said.

"They only resisted and fought when they were surprised by the enemy and they had no choice and most of the time they were carrying out attack-and-escape tactics," he said.

But even before the Marines are able to hold these militant areas, they will have a difficult time in Helmand, Mujda said.

"It is terribly hot, the foreign soldiers move heavily, they carry food, water, heavy uniform and protection. They cannot survive in that heat for long."

At least two Marines have been evacuated suffering chronic heat exhaustion, the force has said.