Iraq had some 125,000 trained security and military personnel as of Jan. 19, according to U.S. government figures, about 46 percent of its goal of 271,000. The figures include police and Iraqi National Guard as well as army, navy, air force and special operations and rapid-response units.

Six months ago, Iraqi security forces were in roughly the same place - 87,000 personnel amounted to about 45 percent of U.S. goals at a time when planners were seeking a smaller force. U.S. government projections, posted weekly on the Internet, said the Iraqi security forces would be completely trained and equipped by spring 2005.

That is no longer the case. Security forces are now expected to be fully trained and equipped by the summer 2006, according to a senior U.S. military officer in Iraq who is close to the training effort but spoke on the condition of anonymity. The officer did not have a final projection for when the military would be completely trained and equipped.

Congratulating the Iraqi people Sunday for turning out at the polls, President Bush said: "We will continue training Iraqi security forces so this rising democracy can eventually take responsibility for its own security."

Sen. Edward Kennedy, D-Mass., who has pressed for an early pullout of U.S. forces, said, "Over the next year, we must more effectively train capable Iraqi security forces."

Iraqi officials and Army Lt. Gen. David Petraeus, the U.S. point man in building the security forces, vastly increased the proposed size of Iraqi forces last summer - for the police force from 90,000 to 135,000 and the National Guard from 41,000 to 62,000. These are two key units within the larger security and military force structure.

However, the expansions have lengthened the time it will take to fully trained and equipped.

Nor do U.S. numbers square with statements from Iraqis. Kasim Daoud, Iraq's national security adviser, predicted last week that an army of 150,000 trained soldiers would be ready by 2006. Yet U.S. plans call for Iraq's military to be no larger than 95,600 troops. Security forces, working for the interior ministry instead of the defense ministry, would number more than 170,000.

Other changes are under way. Iraqi police forces have begun training with assault rifles and other heavy weapons, U.S. military officials say, in a move aimed at making them better able to fight a guerrilla war.

It is also an acknowledgment that the earlier efforts to train and equip Iraqi forces may have been inadequate. Police have been overmatched in confrontations with better-armed insurgents.

A host of other changes to Iraq's nascent security and military forces have taken place in recent months - forces that, if able to operate without American direction, are the key to U.S. troops coming home.

Numbers of trained Iraqi troops don't provide a complete picture. The U.S. military no longer supplies figures on how many have been fully equipped with armor, weapons, vehicles and communications gear. Their effectiveness also is at issue.

The U.S. military provides anecdotal evidence that some units are growing more capable. Iraqi military units performed well in the assault on Fallujah, senior American officers say. Press releases note the performance of a given Iraqi unit in a joint operation with U.S. forces or in stopping a bombing. Still, it is impossible to discern an overall picture of their quality.

There have been significant setbacks. Close to 10,000 Iraqi National Guardsmen have been dropped from the rolls in the last six months. Hundreds of security and military personnel have been killed. More have been intimidated into leaving. Last April, whole units evaporated when confronted by insurgents. The police force in Mosul, Iraqi's third-largest city, collapsed in November.

The actual numbers in the National Guard, however, have ebbed and flowed between 35,000 and 43,000 and are now around 36,000, according to U.S. government figures. Over the last six months, the Guard has lost 10,000 personnel, although some have been replaced through recruiting.

Officials estimated that Iraqi security and military personnel are dying at a greater rate than U.S. soldiers. More than 1,300 members of those forces have died in the last seven months, many victims of large car bombings at police stations, officials said.

The U.S. military is also moving forward with plans to assign advisory teams to Iraqi military units nationwide, officials said.

Such 10-person teams are in place in some areas, but officials say that will spread to every battalion of Iraq's military forces. Fewer U.S. military personnel will embed with the police forces, generally at high levels in the police command structure.

Defense officials have said this could mean up to 10,000 U.S. soldiers and Marines will be assigned to work directly with Iraqi security forces.

The latest focus is augmenting the Iraqi intervention forces and creating a cadre of experienced sergeants and officers to lead the troops and coordinate larger operations.

Anthony Cordesman, a military analyst at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, said the new urgency in training is helpful but almost a year too late. "We're only now beginning to train forces against the insurgency problem," he said.

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