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Fantasy Football Forecast: A Fresh Start

Josh Freeman in sweatjacket

With our nation poised on the edge of getting its act back together as of this writing (fingers crossed), the Military.com Fantasy Football Forecast is ready to do likewise. Hopefully your fantasy season has gone better than MFFF's -- with the crushing loss of Atlanta WR Julio Jones, and with Baltimore RB Ray Rice going on fantasy vacation for a month at a time, it's hasn't been a banner year for our squad. But we still have over half a fantasy season to go, and it's time to play smarter, not harder. With that in mind, let's pull together a few observations and make our waiver wire selections for Week 7:

Fantasy Scoring: Crowded at the Top

How the worm turns -- a few weeks ago it looked like Fantasy 2013 would be the Year of the QB, but recent weeks have changed up the trend, with RBs such as Philly's LeSean McCoy, Kansas City's Jamaal Charles and Seattle's Marshawn Lynch cracking the top 10 in scoring (and with a monster game last week, Denver's  Knowshon Moreno isn't far behind). It gets awfully thin after the top 10 RBs though, with injuries and RB-by-committee approaches creating a massive drop-off in quality. Moral of the story: If you can get your hands on someone who receives starter-quantity touches, hold on to him tight.

WR: Spreading the Wealth

Check this out: the #1 current fantasy RB (Jamaal Charles in most leagues) has scored twice as many points as the current #13 RB. In stark contrast, the #1 fantasy WR (the Eagles' DeSean Jackson  or Broncos' Wes Welker, depending on how your league scores) has scored twice as many points as the #32 WR. The conclusion is that talent (and stats) are spaced out more evenly at the WR position, so you should be more fluid about your WR drops and pickups as the season goes on.

Waiver Pick-ups for Week 7:

Minnesota QB Josh Freeman: It's a bear of a gamble -- who will show up to play QB for the Vikes, the man who was on fire for the first half of the 2012 season, or the man who looked utterly lost for the first few games of 2013? Having RB Adrian Peterson should help, and going against a reeling Giants team should help even more. Freeman may not be starting material moving forward, but as a Week 7 fill-in he'll do just fine.

NY Giants RB Brandon Jacobs: The Giants fell to 0-6 last week, but it wasn't due to Mr. Jacobs, who was picked up off the scrap heap in Week 2 and roared back with his best game in two years (100+ yards, 2 TDs) last Thursday. The question is, given his bruising style and relative age, can he last more than a few weeks as a fantasy factor? Probably not, and you should note that not only will injured RB Andre Brown be back in a few weeks, but New York just signed former Madden cover-boy RB Peyton Hillis (remember 2010?) as insurance. Still, he's a decent fill-in for the immediate future, especially now that the Gmen's schedule relaxes a bit.

Dallas RB Joseph Randle: 11 carries for 17 yards? Hardly impressive. But Randle did score a TD last week as he filled in for injured starter RB DeMarco Murray, and will receive the bulk of carries this week against a porous Eagle D.

New England WR Aaron Dobson: In another example of a player who's rising due to another player's injury misfortune, it looks like Dobson will be subbing for Danny Amendola as the Patriots' #2 receiver this week. He's had sporadic production thus far, but with New England's offense starting to click again, he's poised to get more action.

Baltimore WRs Jacoby Jones and Tandon Doss: Both Jones and Doss had decent production last week; the question is, can they continue to put up numbers given the unsettled state of the Ravens' offense? Jones is more of a deep-ball threat, while Doss is emerging as a possession threat. If you're in desperate need of WR help this weekend, our advice is to flip a coin and pick one of them.

Tampa Bay TE Tim Wright: One of the prime beneficiaries of rookie QB Mike Glennon getting the call in Tampa Bay is Wright, who has gathered in 132 yards receiving the past two games. Some tough pass Ds (Seattle, Carolina) loom on the horizon, but he should be serviceable depth moving forward. Even better, in Yahoo leagues he's officially classified as a WR/TE, which gives you flexibility when building game-day rosters.

St. Louis Defense: After a rocky start, the Ram defense has come on with a rush the last two weeks, racking up 7 sacks, four interceptions and 3 defensive TDs. This week they get another favorable matchup against a very erratic Panther offense.

 

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