The Mexican military killed Jalisco New Generation Cartel (CJNG) leader Nemesio "El Mencho" Oseguera Cervantes on Feb. 22 in a raid in Tapalpa, Jalisco. What followed was not a quiet surrender but a furious wave of retaliation that lit up roads, airports and cities across at least 20 Mexican states. Gunmen torched vehicles, set up burning blockades and ambushed security forces, killing at least 25 National Guard troops in the first days alone.
This is not just Mexico's problem. The chaos carries direct implications for the U.S. southern border, where fentanyl flows, migrant surges and cartel smuggling networks already stretch American resources thin. Military.com recently reported on a U.S. veteran-led organization helping to evacuate people from the violence.
Military.com spoke with Stefano Ritondale, chief intelligence officer at Artorias and operator of the All Source News account that tracks cartel activity. His read on the ground-level dynamics helps frame what U.S. forces and border agencies may face next.
The Raid That Took Down the Kingpin
Mexican special forces cornered El Mencho in his home state. He died from wounds sustained during the operation while being transported. The White House confirmed U.S. intelligence support helped the effort, calling it a major win against one of the top fentanyl traffickers feeding the American overdose crisis.
Ritondale noted the move came after months of pressure from the United States. "The threat of unilateral military action made the Mexican government realize they'd rather deal with CJNG flare-up themselves - that they know will be temporary - than deal with U.S. military doing a unilateral strike," he said. Mexico acted to protect its sovereignty while showing results.
Cartel Strikes Back With Coordinated Chaos
CJNG did not fold. Within hours, operatives launched what Ritondale described as classic "destruction operations" designed to divert law enforcement and buy time for leaders to escape or regroup. Burning barricades snarled traffic. Gunmen hit National Guard convoys. One attempt even targeted Guadalajara airport infrastructure.
As previously reported, 25 Mexican National Guard troops died in six separate attacks in Jalisco alone in the immediate aftermath. The violence stayed focused on state targets rather than civilians. "We didn't get really any reports of civilian, or foreign civilian tourist deaths," Ritondale said. Further, he added:
It was meant to send a message.
He stressed an important distinction often lost in headlines: cartel violence differs sharply from everyday street crime. "There is a 'cartel problem set' and a 'local crime problem set.' Robberies, petty crimes, is a fundamentally different problem set than the cartels."
Border Security Faces Fresh Pressures
For U.S. border security, the short-term risk is clear. When a cartel like CJNG feels cornered, it often ramps up smuggling to fund fights or distract authorities. Splinter groups emerging from succession battles tend to act more unpredictably than a centralized outfit. That means potential spikes in fentanyl shipments, human smuggling corridors and armed confrontations near the line.
Ritondale pointed out the cartel remains business-first. "They aren't driven by politics, they're driven by business." Tourism and cross-border trade keep money moving, so total shutdowns hurt them too. Still, the power vacuum left by El Mencho's death could push factions to test the border harder while Mexican forces stay tied down with internal flare-ups. Regardless, those interested in attending the World Cup this summer will likely not face increased risk of Cartel violence according to Ritondale.
He added:
I don't know if this is the new normal, or if this was just a way to buy time with the U.S. Government
History shows decapitation strikes rarely end the trade. They often fracture organizations into smaller, harder-to-track pieces that compete violently for turf. That competition frequently spills northward in the form of more aggressive smuggling runs.
Succession Battles and the Risk of Escalation
A new leader may emerge quickly, but internal fights could drag on for months. Ritondale flagged the possibility that lower-hanging fruit, such as remaining Chapitos from the rival Sinaloa Cartel, might potentially draw attention from Mexican authorities next. Either way, the instability keeps pressure on U.S. Customs and Border Protection, National Guard units and intelligence assets watching the line.
American service members supporting border missions already know the drill: cartels adapt fast. Drones and military-grade tactics have long been part of their playbook. The current chaos reinforces the need for persistent surveillance and rapid response, regardless of who sits at the top of any one organization.
What Americans Should Watch and Do
Ritondale's advice for anyone in the region remains straightforward and practical. Check U.S. State Department travel advisories and embassy alerts. If violence flares near your location, shelter in place at your hotel or resort and follow local safety guidance. The same off-limits lists the embassy gives its own staff offer a reliable baseline before travel.
For the U.S. military and law enforcement community, this episode underscores a hard truth: external pressure can force partner nations to act, but lasting disruption requires addressing demand and incentives that keep the black market alive. Kingpin removals deliver tactical victories. They rarely deliver strategic peace.
The border remains a front line. How CJNG's factions regroup in the coming weeks will test how well that line holds.
