Predicting the end of a regime, especially one led by ruthless and wily survivors, always poses great risks to the prophet of doom. But the Iranian regime meets almost all of my indicators for the end of a government.
First, there are persistent reports that some of the security forces are refusing to use lethal force against their compatriots. On top of that, several news accounts have said that members of the security forces have been forced to surrender to crowds. One particularly noteworthy example had security forces "cowering" as angry crowds confronted them in the capital.
Then there are the number of senior officials the government is clearly forced to arrest out of a sense that it has lot control. When you are arresting
The Financial Times reports today that the regime has arrested "hundreds of people" in another crackdown. The paper notes this includes, "Dozens of politicians and journalists... including Ali-Reza Beheshti, the senior adviser to Mir-Hossein Moussavi, the opposition leader, and Nooshin Ebadi, the sister of Shirin Ebadi, the Nobel Peace Prize laureate."
And the unrest is rolling across the country, with violence reported in Tehran, Isfahan, and at least ifve other cities.
The Israelis must be watching all this with eagle eyes, hoping that the regime falls and is replaced by less jingoistic and less vicious types. I'm not willing to say the regime will fall in days, weeks or months, but it's days look numbered.