The Near-term Horizon


By Kevin Coleman -- Defense Tech Cyberwarfare Correspondent

Perhaps the most frequent question I get regarding cyber attack is about the future. Not 20 years out, nor even 10 years out. People are interested in what is likely to take place in the next three to five years.  Most seek this insight so that they may develop or update their strategic and operational plans. So here is my cyber related forecast for the next five years.

  1. Cyber attacks against businesses accelerate to a point where organizations forecast and budget for losses that they incur due to successful cyber attacks.
  2. The blur between cyber attacks launched by criminal organizations, terrorists and rogue nation states drive the development and institution of an international accord that supports rapid response to cyber events and cooperation attribution efforts.
  3. The software industry and the cyber security industry will join together and establish an oversight and advisory group that will work with the government and private sector critical infrastructure organizations to reduce software/systems’ vulnerabilities throughout the development lifecycle.
  4. A cyber attack on a country’s critical infrastructure prompts a physical military response thus driving the United Nations to become heavily engaged in policies governing retaliatory actions for cyber attacks.
  5. NATO is called upon to address the issue of non-NATO countries inclusion and participation into their cyber event investigation and cyber peace keeping efforts.
No one knows exactly what the future holds and those who dare to predict based on their experience open themselves up to criticism. However, we cannot continue to be heavily reliant on response and reaction rather than being proactive. Show Full Article

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