Parameters of an Iran Strike

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A strike against Iranian nuclear-related targets could be carried out before the next US administration enters office.

Israeli military intelligence (AMAN) may estimate that Barack Obama has more than a fair chance of winning in upcoming elections. However, they may wait for the results before deciding to strike.

Ironically, an Obama victory will probably be the tipping point. Israeli MI is no doubt cognizant of the fact that Obama's Middle East policy-makers will favor "diplomacy" and try to avert a strike at all costs.

However, the Israeli government may attempt to utilize the frightening specter of a strike to expedite the sale of advanced military equipment to the Jewish state.

A Likud government led by Benjamin Netanyahu (with support from Shas and other rightist parties) would be more likely to strike Iranian nuclear targets, much like Menachem Begin (against Osirak) in 1981.

There would be intense consultations with the outgoing Bush administration over the timing and scope of the strike, specifically regarding how it would affect the burgeoning price of oil.

-- Aharon Etengoff

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