So let's assume Iran does get the Bomb. How big of a threat is that, really? Could the mullahs hook it up to a missile, for instance, and fire that sucker off at Tel Aviv?
Arms Control Wonk Dr. Jeffrey Lewis tackles those questions in the second part of his trilogy on the Iran's nuclear capacity.
The bottom line: Iran might, might, be able to deliver a nuclear weapon against an Israeli city, but that would be at the extreme edge of their capabilities.
Much more worrisome, I would think, would be the weapon delivered by terrorists, perhaps on a ship...
Irans missiles arent that big, and its warheads arent that small. Without more testing of both, I think Iran would be hard pressed to deliver a missile to Israel, let alone Europe or the United States.
That said, Iranwith low confidencemight be able to build a 500-1000 kg warhead could hit targets thoughout the Middle East, including Israel if mated to its Shahab 3 IRBM...
This is, I think, the very edge of Tehrans capabilities and they would have very low confidence in either system.
