A cabal of terrorist-funding, virulently anti-Semitic, nuclear-armed mullahs is bad, no question. Really bad. But just how awful is the awful situation in Iran?
Those conflicting, confusing reports in the press are no help. So I begged the Arms Control Wonk, Dr. Jeffrey Lewis, to give us some straight answers on three-and-a-half basic questions about Iran:
1. How far is Tehran from getting the Bomb?
2. How easily could that Bomb be attached to missile, and how far can that missile go?
3. How hard would it be for the U.S. or Israel to knock out Iran's nuclear facilities?
Today, the Wonk takes on the first question. The quick answer is that we've probably a little less than a decade until the shit hits the fan, atomically-speaking. Unless the mullahs get really, really lucky. And then it's more like three years until the big showdown.
But don't take my word for it. Go read the whole thing for yourself. Even the math. Even the bit about cascading centrifuges. You'll be a little less unnerved, once you know more about the engineering and the science behind Tehran's nuclear push.
UPDATE 6:22 PM: If the Wonk's analysis made you feel slightly better, this Joe Katzman post should take care of that, quick.
(Big ups: Glenn)
