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Energy Insanity
Allan Topol | May 11, 2006
Having dealt with many parts of the United States government for more than 40 years, I have never seen anything approaching the stupidity of the discussion in this town following the latest surge in gas prices. Politicians from both parties are scrambling -- not in an effort develop policy in the national interest, but to save their own political hides from the backlash of angry constituents.

At the top of the list of ludicrous ideas is the notion of mailing $100 checks to all taxpayers to ease the burden of high gasoline prices. This idea is an insult to the intelligence of the American people. For starters, most of the $100 will be spent on a single visit to the gas station for many vehicles. The notion that a payment of this magnitude will pacify angry voters is absurd.

Moreover, this idea is inconsistent with the position taken by a number of economists and op-ed commentators that the price of gasoline should rise and we should suffer pain because only then will we ride public transportation and take other steps to reduce consumption. By softening the blow of the price increases with the $100 grant, the government would be minimizing some of the pain. These economists would urge the government to go in a contrary direction and impose an additional gasoline tax of as much as $1 a gallon in order to force reductions in consumption. That idea is equally ludicrous. Drivers in England are already paying in excess of $6 a gallon for gasoline. Our gas prices will rise above $4 a gallon before long even without the imposition of any government tax.

Then there's the impact on the U.S. Treasury, which given the current horrendous deficit can't afford to be making any payments to taxpayers that are not required. Consistent with this notion, other commentators have urged an excess profits tax on gasoline producers and others benefiting by the run-up in prices. This wouldn't do anything to solve the country's gasoline problem, but it would at least restore badly needed revenues to the treasury.

In a certain sense, one has to feel a little sorry for President Bush having this problem thrust on him at the present time, along with Iraq and everything else. To be sure, he has been in the White House for four years and the current administration has done nothing to ease the burden of this problem, which everyone knew was coming. However, the same can be said for every American president since 1973, the year that the Arab oil embargo was imposed. Those of us old enough to have lived through that time remember waiting in line on an even or odd day at 4 AM to fill up at any price.

There is no simple solution to the problem. The United States has built its economy on the notion of free markets and supply and demand. In the last couple of years, the demand for oil has increased enormously as China and India have emerged from nowhere to become prodigious consumers. Then there are all those developing countries in Asia and Latin America. As their economies rise, understandably, people want to own and drive cars.

Meantime, the supply has been shrinking. In the United States our domestic production reached a peak in the early 1970s. It's simply not there to be extracted out of the ground at anything like a reasonable price. In the meantime, our consumption has continued to increase. We rejected the construction of nuclear power plants in favor of the continued burning of fossil fuels. We are now paying the price.

Significant reserves of oil are located in trouble spots around the world. Iraq has huge reservoirs of oil, but little of it is being produced. A near civil war is being waged in oil-rich areas of Nigeria, Africa's largest oil producer. All of the Iranian threats and counter threats about nuclear weapons are having an impact price. The next trouble spot in the Middle East is likely to hit an oil producer.

With these considerations on both the supply and demand side, price will continue to rise for a barrel of crude and hence at the pump. We will long for the day when we could purchase gasoline for $3 a gallon. Don't expect the government or American industry to provide any relief in the short term. Notions being batted around about ethanol and hydrogen are on the distant horizon. Meanwhile, all that any American can usefully do is adjust their own lifestyles, to the extent possible, in order to minimize the cost.

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Copyright 2009 Allan Topol. All opinions expressed in this article are the author's and do not necessarily reflect those of Military.com.

 
About Allan Topol

Allan Topol is a partner in a large Washington-based international law firm. He has a science and engineering degree from Carnegie Mellon, and a law degree from Yale University. For almost 40 years, he has been involved in issues at the height of the Washington power structure.

He is also a national bestselling novelist, using the thriller genre to explore international geopolitical and military issues. His new novel, ENEMY OF MY ENEMY, dealing with an American pilot shot down over Eastern Turkey and Russian nuclear weapons, was released February 1, 2005.

His 2001 novel, SPY DANCE, is about a former CIA agent on the run and Saudi Arabian oil. His 2003 novel, DARK AMBITION, deals with the corruption of power in Washington and China's threatening posture toward Taiwan. In January 2004, his new novel CONSPIRACY was released dealing with a foreign leader's attempt to influence an American presidential election and the possibility of renewed militarism in Japan.

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Allan Topol Books:
Spy Dance
Dark Ambition
Conspiracy