The stakes in Iraq are huge. If the United States can succeed in creating a stable secular democratic government in that country, we will have achieved a tremendous victory. Iraq could then serve as a model for other Middle Eastern countries ruled by demagogues like Saddam Hussein. In addition, Iraq's oil production will again increase, adding supplies to the world market with a beneficial impact on price.

If we do not achieve these objectives, then the results will be disastrous. Increased instability throughout the Middle East is likely. Terrorists will have a new base in Iraq, which will split up into its three ethnic components. Even worse, the country could end up in the chaos of a civil war and Iraq's oil supplies will be unavailable to the industrial nations of the world. The United States will have suffered a major blow to its prestige and other nations will be much less likely to rely on American commitments.

Whether we can achieve victory in Iraq or not is a very difficult question. I am not close enough to the military situation to have an informed opinion. I read, like I'm sure most of you do, quite markedly different points of view on this issue (even from those who are in Iraq and have spent a considerable amount of time there). At this point, a fair interpretation is that the question is too close to call. However, one thing is very clear. While the battle with the insurgents rages in Iraq and Americans are fighting and dying to achieve the victory described above, there is a second war going on in the United States. That is the war for American public opinion. It is tremendously important.

Make no mistake about it. If American public opinion turns sharply against the war and in favor of an immediate pull-out, members of Congress who are up for reelection next year will receive that message. At that point, Congressional pressure on the White House will increase enormously. If the Bush administration does not heed the call for withdrawal, then Congress will begin passing resolutions. A premature withdrawal will take place and we will never heave a chance to see whether an important victory, which might still be achievable, is ever realized.

It is for this reason that President Bush and his advisers have recently begun, albeit very late in the game, a massive appeal to the American people for support of the war's continuation. Perhaps it was Congressman Murtha's call for withdrawal that galvanized the administration. Whatever the reason, the President has finally come out fighting in the court of public opinion.

President Bush's speech last Sunday to a nationally televised prime time audience took his appeal directly to war opponents and to the American people. The President was humble and contrite, which is a far cry from the normal self-confident manner in which this president has addressed the American people at other times. He did not disparage the opponents of the war, but said that he recognized how deeply felt their disagreement was.

Most important, President Bush conceded that “much of the intelligence turned out to be wrong, and as your President I am responsible for the decision to go into Iraq.” At the same time Bush said, “yet it was right to remove Saddam Hussein from power.” This is a critical point. At last the administration has stopped defending its position on weapons of mass destruction and on the prewar connection between Al Qaeda and Saddam. At last they have focused the issue where it should be: the United States and the world are much better off with this cruel despotic tyrant, who was bent on encouraging instability in the Middle East, out of office.

The President was wise to take this approach. The elections last week were an enormously positive step in the direction of a stable Iraq. This time the President was careful not to oversell the benefits of the election. He conceded that more violence lies ahead.

In the weeks ahead, we will see whether the administration's campaign succeeds in bringing back enough support to maintain the march toward victory. With so much at stake, one can only hope that the American people will permit the President, whom they reelected while the war being waged, to continue to pursue his objective.