maneuverable re-entry vehicles and a range in excess of 800 miles. Put together with good C4ISR for geolocation and tracking, this new capability would provide the PLAN with a long-range anti-access, preventive or pre-emptive strike capability against surface ships, including high-value platforms such as aircraft carriers. The U.S. Navy has never faced such a threat.

In addition, since the early 1990s, China has deployed nine new destroyer and frigate classes, improving its at-sea fighting capabilities. The SS-N-22 Sunburn anti-ship cruise missile, found aboard Sovremenny-class destroyers, adds punch.

The carrier question no longer seems to be in question. It is taken as a given that China will produce at least a limited number of aircraft carriers, probably equipped with Russian Su-33 fighters. A nuclear carrier might be operational by 2020.

Submarines are another concern. The Pentagon reports that the "acquisition and development of the Kilo, Song, Shang, and Yuan-class submarine illustrates the importance the PLA places on undersea warfare for sea-denial." The Kilo, Song and Yuan are diesel attack boats, while the Shang is China's first nuclear attack submarine. They are armed with a range of weapons, including wake-homing torpedoes, mines and anti-ship cruise missiles, including the Russian-made SS-N-27 Sizzler.

By 2010, the Jin-class ballistic missile submarine will be carrying the intercontinental-range JL-2 missiles, enhancing the mobility, survivability and deterrence of China's nuclear forces, known as the Second Artillery. The Jins are stationed at the Sanya naval base on Hainan Island, providing the likely reason the Chinese are unhappy about American ships conducting operations nearby.

While China is certainly modernizing its fleet, some analysts contend that it is not expanding it. Despite this, not all of China's neighbors are sanguine about it, including the U.S.

Regional Reactions

In May, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Adm. Mike Mullen caused a bit of a firestorm in China, when he said the Chinese "are developing capabilities that are very maritime focused, maritime and air focused, and in many ways, very much focused on us. They seem very focused on the United States Navy and our bases that are in that part of the world."

The U.S. has shifted as many as 50 attack subs from the Atlantic to the Pacific and forward-deployed naval assets from the West Coast and Hawaii to Guam to overcome the tyranny of distance Pacific commanders face.

But it is not just the U.S. Vietnam penned a $2 billion deal for six Russian Kilo-class diesel submarines. Hanoi is annoyed about territorial disputes with Beijing as well as the new Sanya naval base off its north coast. Australia's most recent defense white paper expressed concern about "China's military modernization," and recommended boosting its sub fleet to 12. Submarine expansions are expected in Singapore, Malaysia and Indonesia, too. India, a major naval power in its own right, is concerned about China's naval buildup, especially the possibility of Beijing developing port facilities in places such as Bangladesh and Pakistan. In Delhi's view, it is not called the Indian Ocean by accident.

Critical Questions

With nearly 60 diesel and nuclear attack boats and more than 75 major surface ships, the PLAN is already the second largest navy in the Pacific, after the U.S. While quality was an issue in the past, that situation is rapidly changing. The PLAN still has weaknesses, including the inability to sustain operations distant from shore and little, if any, combat experience, but the PLAN is a priority for Beijing, meaning it will almost assuredly get the needed resources.

The increased roles and missions -- and improved capabilities -- of the PLAN have implications for the U.S. Navy in terms of its budgets, modernization, presence and influence in the Western Pacific as well as Taiwan planning contingencies.

Considering the PLAN's rise, the questions of anti-submarine warfare, homeporting, aircraft carriers numbers, missile defense, research and development, and even space take on greater importance than at any time since the Cold War.

While the Pacific has long been considered an American lake, that can no longer be taken for granted. China is clearly on a trajectory to have significant say -- and sway -- in maritime matters in the Western Pacific and, very likely, beyond.