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(More) Bad News Bear
The Russian bear is back. Today's Kremlin is cocky, nationalistic, rich and bent on asserting Russia as a great power - not only in its neighborhood or "near abroad" - but across the globe. It entered 2008 in its strongest position since the fall of the Berlin Wall, continually reorienting its foreign policy to one that is independent, strikingly outspoken, and even anti-West. Russia is vying to lord over its traditional sphere of influence (like Imperialist Russia) and take its place on the world stage as a power-broker (like the Soviet Union). Quite simply: The Kremlin plans to reinstate Russia's superpower status. In 2005, then-president Vladimir Putin (now prime minister, with little difference in power) told the Russian parliament the greatest geo-political tragedy of the 20th century was the fall of the Soviet Union. This is clearly telling of the Kremlin's mindset. So while cooperation is still possible, there'll be issues of critical importance where Russia will not align itself with Western or US interests. Russia can certainly throw its weight around, not only with its million-man army and its veto spot on the UN Security Council, but its natural resources - it's the No. 1 producer of natural gas, and the No. 2 producer of oil. Here's a guide to Russia's immediate interests: Buffer Zones Georgian areas: Russia invades Georgia with tanks and tens of thousands of troops over violence in the breakaway region of South Ossetia-- a punitive strike against Georgian forces and an effort to bring down the government of President Mikheil Saakashvili. It also occupies Abkhazia, another separatist area of Georgia. Russia may push for the independence of both South Ossetia and Abkhazia--or even annexation. Kaliningrad: Russia has threatened both Poland and the Czech Republic over the stationing of a US missile defense system, including a radar and 10 interceptors, aimed against the Iranian threat. Threats have included a military buildup in the Russian enclave Kaliningrad (a sliver of Russia between Lithuanian and Poland) and the basing of missiles in neighboring Belarus. Transnistria: Russia has troops in the breakaway region of Transnistria in the former Soviet Republic of Moldova, ostensibly protecting the interests of the ethnic Russian separatists there. Unhappy with the West's support for Kosovo's independence earlier this year, Russia may also push this region toward separatism, too. Ukraine: Moscow has warned Kiev (and Tbilisi) against joining NATO. Russian intelligence is suspected of complicity in the plot to poison - and kill - a West-leaning presidential candidate, and now president, Viktor Yushchenko in 2004. Russia will continue to pressure Ukraine from joining the West. Uzbekistan: Russia (along with China) pressured the former Soviet Central Asian Republic of Uzbekistan to close the US air base at Karshi-Khanabad, supporting Afghanistan operations. It complied. Moscow tried to do the same in Kyrgyzstan - unsuccessfully. Estonia: Government-backed Russian hackers attacked Estonian government computers and non-government media web sites after Tallinn announces plan to move a Red Army soldier statue. Russia has also tried to penetrate the Pentagon's computers and probably crashed Georgian government networks during the invasion. New Alliances Iran: Moscow has been building Iran's first nuclear reactor at Bushehr since the mid-1990s and has already supplied the nuclear fuel. Iran is buying $1 billion in Russian arms, mostly air defense systems for protecting its nuclear facilities. After Georgia, any help with halting Iran's nuclear program at the UN Security Council is unlikely. Syria: Russia forgave Syria its $15 billion in Cold War debt so Damascus could buy $1 billion in new Russian arms, mostly advanced air defense systems. Qatar: Russia has engaged Qatar, a country with the world's No. 3 natural gas reserves, about forming an OPEC-like natural gas cartel, which would control the supply and price of this energy source. Moscow has also talked to Tehran and Caracas about joining. China: Russia is the source of China's most advanced weapons, supporting Beijing's major military build-up. Moscow and Beijing have also begun regular joint military exercises. While the two sides have a difficult, bilateral history, they see each other as strategic partners in balancing US power in the world. Venezuela: Moscow has sold $3-$4 billion in advanced Russian arms to Caracas, supporting President Hugo Chavez's socialist Bolivarian Revolution and his bid for hegemony in Latin America. Caracas has recently expressed a readiness to host Russian military bases. Stirring Up Trouble Europe: Europe is heavily dependent on Russian energy supplies, getting as much as 40% of its natural gas and 25% of its oil from Russian fields. The continent's reliance on Russian energy has served to significantly dampen criticism of Russian actions around the world. North Korea: Russia helped its former client state, North Korea, build its first nuclear reactor; now it's a member of the Six-Party Talks, aimed at rolling back the nuclear weapons Pyongyang derived from that reactor. While no longer close, Moscow may like how it serves as a distraction to Washington. Arctic: A Russian submarine planted a titanium flag on the Arctic Ocean floor near the North Pole, laying claim to the potentially resource-rich seabed. Other Arctic states disagree with Russia's claim, raising the specter of the militarization of the North Pole. |
About Peter Brookes
Peter Brookes is a Senior Fellow for national security affairs at the Heritage Foundation, a Washington, D.C.-based think tank. He is also a weekly columnist for the New York Post. Brookes frequently appears on cable news such as FOX, CNN, and MSNBC as well as hosts major market radio talk shows. He is the author of: "A Devil's Triangle: Terrorism, Weapons of Mass Destruction and Rogue States."Before coming to Heritage, Brookes served in the Bush administration as the Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Asian-Pacific Affairs. Prior to the Pentagon, he worked as a staff member with the Republican staff of the Committee on International Relations in the House of Representatives. Brookes also served with the CIA's Directorate of Operations, and worked on international economic issues for the State Department at the U.N. He also served in the U.S. Navy, including active duty in tours in Panama and Japan in aviation and intelligence/cryptologic billets. He has over 1300 flight hours aboard Navy EP-3 aircraft. Brookes is a Commander in the naval reserves. He is a graduate of the U.S. Naval Academy; the Defense Language Institute; the Naval War College; and the Johns Hopkins University. Peter Brookes' new book, "A Devil's Triangle: Terrorism, Weapons of Mass Destruction and Rogue States" is a cold, hard slap for anyone becoming complacent about security challenges in today's world, warning readers that threats to America's national security have not subsided in the four years since 9/11, but, in fact, have escalated.
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