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Don't Get Giddy Over North Korea
Peter Brookes | June 27, 2008

North Korea gave the world some good news this week - finally handing over a declaration about its nuclear program and promising to blow up the cooling tower at its Yongbyon nuclear facility. But don't break out the best bubbly just yet. These moves are only a first step in what is likely to be a drawn-out, slippery, pot-hole-filled road in a (possibly futile) attempt to roll back Kim Jong Il's membership in the nuclear-weapons club.

Yes, the White House got a bit light-headed over the Korean news: It's already started the process of lifting economic sanctions on the reclusive nation as a reward for good behavior. (That process could get controversial, especially in Congress: Do Kim and Co. really deserve to come off the Terrorism List, or to escape punishment under the Trading With the Enemy Act?) And it was good news, if measured: Tumbling the cooling tower puts the Yongbyon plant out of commission - and it would take a year to rebuild. Making the nuclear declaration this week is a welcome step, too.

But a welcome initial step. Pyongyang is six months late in handing over what's supposed to be a complete and correct accounting of its nuclear programs - and you can bet we're not going to get anything close to the Full Monty. It won't have anything about the regime's clandestine, uranium-based nuclear-weapons program. Washington insists Pyongyang has such a program, which parallels the plutonium program at Yongbyon. But the North Koreans have been evasive - at best - about its existence.

The declaration also won't have any info on the regime's nuclear-proliferation activities, such as its work with Damascus on a nuclear reactor at al Kibar in northern Syria (the one targeted in last September's Israeli air raid). Proliferation-watchers also have a sinking sense that North Korea may be involved with Iran. After all, the two have robust ties on ballistic missiles - Iran's Shahab missile is based on North Korea's No Dong.

Finally, it won't have the scoop on the size of the North Korean nuclear-weapons arsenal. Pyongyang sees its nukes as a critical ace-in-the-hole against American pressure or aggression. But getting a handle on the arsenal's size is key, if (and that's a big if) we're ever going to make progress on pulling Pyongyang's nuclear fangs.

Other challenges are ahead, too. In a speech at the Heritage Foundation just a week ago, Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice insisted the United States would demand tough verification of Kim's declaration, including access to nuclear facilities and other data. That's the right approach - verification is a critical element of any current or future agreement. But good luck getting anywhere on that one.

The idea of a gaggle of US inspectors freely running around the ultra-secretive North Korean police state poking their noses into labs and the like boggles the mind.
In fact, recent North Korean whispers suggest Pyongyang will reject out of hand any verification regime that would the pass the laugh test.

Rejecting verification outright would call into question Kim's willingness to disarm in the long run - after all, the regime has a solid record of breaking its word on nukes, most notably the 1994 Geneva Agreed Framework. Overall, a solid verification regime is probably the proverbial "long pole in the tent" - the toughest test in getting from this week's first steps to the final goal of disarmament.

In the end, all U.S. moves must support a verifiable process that ultimately uncovers all of Pyongyang's programs, neuters its nukes and puts an end to its problematic proliferation.

Sound Off...What do you think? Join the discussion.

Copyright 2008 Peter Brookes. All opinions expressed in this article are the author's and do not necessarily reflect those of Military.com.

 
About Peter Brookes

Peter Brookes is a Senior Fellow for national security affairs at the Heritage Foundation, a Washington, D.C.-based think tank. He is also a weekly columnist for the New York Post. Brookes frequently appears on cable news such as FOX, CNN, and MSNBC as well as hosts major market radio talk shows. He is the author of: "A Devil's Triangle: Terrorism, Weapons of Mass Destruction and Rogue States."

Before coming to Heritage, Brookes served in the Bush administration as the Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Asian-Pacific Affairs. Prior to the Pentagon, he worked as a staff member with the Republican staff of the Committee on International Relations in the House of Representatives. Brookes also served with the CIA's Directorate of Operations, and worked on international economic issues for the State Department at the U.N.

He also served in the U.S. Navy, including active duty in tours in Panama and Japan in aviation and intelligence/cryptologic billets. He has over 1300 flight hours aboard Navy EP-3 aircraft. Brookes is a Commander in the naval reserves. He is a graduate of the U.S. Naval Academy; the Defense Language Institute; the Naval War College; and the Johns Hopkins University.

Peter Brookes' new book, "A Devil's Triangle: Terrorism, Weapons of Mass Destruction and Rogue States" is a cold, hard slap for anyone becoming complacent about security challenges in today's world, warning readers that threats to America's national security have not subsided in the four years since 9/11, but, in fact, have escalated.