A few days ago the Republican candidates participated in a Presidential debate in Florida in preparation for the Florida primary on Tuesday, January 29. This debate was important because this primary is important. Florida is a “winner-take-all” primary, meaning whomever wins the most votes on Tuesday wins all 57 delegate votes at the Republic National Convention. Right now, there is no guaranteed “front-runner” for the Republican Party. John McCain (who won New Hampshire and South Carolina) and Mitt Romney (who won Wyoming, Michigan, and Nevada) are considered tied for first place (so to speak), followed by Mike Huckabee (who won the Iowa caucus). Giuliani, who forewent campaigning in the other primary states to focus on Florida, has not placed better than third in all but one Florida poll; but honestly, anything could happen.

Bill Clinton won the White House in 1992 with one simple message capturing the angst of the American public: "It's the economy, stupid" (referring to George H.W. Bush's failure to appreciate the fears of the average American during an economic recession). Something similar appears to be happening today and although we are not technically experiencing a recession, all the current candidates have apparently learned from George H. W. Bush's mistake.

Consequently, the recent debate focused heavily on the economy and how to avoid a possible economic recession. (Sadly, it was much less entertaining than the last Democratic debate.) Not coincidentally, Congress is working on a $150 billion stimulus package that would give tax rebates ranging from $300 to $1,200 (and more for each child in the household) to “wage earning” taxpayers. Interestingly, the Congressional Budget Office is not predicting a recession, so the stimulus package may be more about reassuring American voters than responding to an actually economic threat (particularly in a presidential election year where Florida and California, two very important primary states with a large amount of delegate votes, are experiencing a recession even though the nation as a whole is not).

Concerns about the economy have displaced concerns about the war in Iraq/foreign policy as the number one issue for voters in this election http://www.csmonitor.com/2008/0115/p01s05-uspo.html according to a January CNN poll. Meanwhile, Secretary of Defense Gates has just announced that U.S. troops are “ready, willing and able” to go into Pakistan to train Pakistan Armed Forces and conduct joint combat operations if they ask us. Currently, President Musharraf is refusing U.S. assistance in Pakistan, saying that his army of 500,000 can keep Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal secure, combat religious extremists, protect their borders, and prevent the internal fighting from destabilizing his country and government.

Admittedly, the CIA is skeptical. Pakistan is estimated to have anywhere from 24 to 48 nuclear warheads but claims to have 80 to 120. Musharraf has in the past knowingly ceded northwestern Pakistan to Islamic extremists believed to shelter Taliban forces and al-Qaida members (who rewarded him with 54 suicide attacks killing hundreds). Then there was the assassination of former Pakistani Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto. Oh, and I don’t know if you all remember a fella by the name of Osama bin Laden, but this is where he is believed to be (in case you hadn’t already heard). According to Musharraf, capturing bin Laden is not a priority for him or his Armed Forces. Yeah, President Musharraf and his crack military team seem to have everything under control—no doubt the result of our $5 billion dollars anti-terrorism investment in him and his regime.

Despite the recent decline in violence, the reason the war in Iraq matters so much is because we are still committing vast amounts of military, economic, and human resources to what has been characterized as the prevention of the outbreak of a civil war. The war in Iraq, arguably, diverts those resources from identifiably direct threats to our national security in places such as Afghanistan and Pakistan. Nonetheless, the economy is now the number one issue on voters’ minds and the most recent presidential debates reflected that.

So I ask you: is it the economy, stupid? And if it is, should it be?