On July 17, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), retired admiral Mike McConnell, released the National Intelligence Council's long-awaited National Intelligence Estimate "The Terrorist Threat to the U.S. Homeland."

According to a statement issued by McConnell's office, the preparation process for this NIE, as it's commonly known, was exhaustive.  It included "a thorough review of sourcing, in-depth [Intelligence] Community {IC] coordination, the use of alternative analysis, and review by outside experts."  The work began in October, 2006 with a series of roundtable discussions held by IC experts "to scope out terms of reference (TOR) for the Estimate."  By May, 2007, a draft of the NIE "was submitted to IC officers in advance of a series of coordination meetings that lasted several days." 

To ensure the NIE's accuracy and incisiveness, "The National Clandestine Service, FBI, and other IC collection officers reviewed the text for reliability and proper use of the sourcing."  Finally, "the National Intelligence Board, composed of the heads of the 16 IC agencies and chaired by the ODNI, reviewed and approved the estimate on 21 June."

So: after all those thousands of man hours and countless discussions, meetings, memos, briefings, reports, assessments, and reassessments (not to mention regular checks of Department of Homeland Security Secretary Michael Chertoff's gut), as well as expenses that probably ran into the eight or nine figures, what new insights has our Intelligence Community come up with?

The answer is disheartening.  Our Intelligence Community has come up with no new insights.  None.  Zippo.

The July 17 NIE in its unclassified form is little more than a regurgitation of all the things we know and all the warnings we have heard over and over and over again for the past six years.  "The Terrorist Threat to the U.S. Homeland" is a classic example of exactly the sort of mealy-mouthed bureaucratese drivel that the creation of the ODNI was supposed to eradicate.

Maybe you think I exaggerate.  Okay, here's one of the jaw-dropping conclusions:  Our intelligence Community actually believes that "the US Homeland will face a persistent and evolving terrorist threat over the next three years."

No, I'm serious.  This is the lead "Key Judgment" in the unclassified version of the NIE.   One wonders what high-level intelligence source provided that insightful, cutting edge assessment.  I wonder how many hundreds of hours it took the drafters, re-drafters, outside experts and senior analysts to go out on such a long and dangerous limb. 
And the other "Key Judgments"?

The NIE predicts al-Qa'ida "will continue to enhance its capabilities to attack the Homeland through greater cooperation with regional terrorist groups."  What original thinking.  How cutting edge.  A true and hard-hitting assessment that will make us all sit up an take notice.

The NIE also concludes that, doh, "al-Qa'ida will continue to try to acquire and employ chemical, biological, radiological, or nuclear material in attacks and would not hesitate to use them if it develops what it deems is sufficient capability."

The Estimate also predicts that, like, "the spread of radical-especially Salafi-Internet sites, increasingly aggressive anti-US rhetoric and actions, and the growing number of radical, self-generating cells in Western countries indicate that the radical and violent segment of the West's Muslim population is expanding, including in the United States."
I'm not kidding folks.  This is your tax dollars at work.

I have a suggestion.  Raze the ODNI.  Raze the CIA.  In fact, raze all those 16 IC agencies.  To the ground.  Make rubble out of them.  Plow them under.

And then start over.  The United States deserves the very best NIEs, put together by nimble, astute, thoughtful analysts, well-versed in the cultures, languages, and beliefs of both our allies and our adversaries.  More than ever before, the United States needs a small, ruthless, proactive, Intelligence Community that is led from the front.

We need a 21st Century OSS-an organization that can turn on a dime, go proactive, think outside the box.  Instead, we have an IC with all the maneuverability of a fully-loaded supertanker.  It would be funny, if the bad guys weren't laughing so hard right now in North Waziristan.