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No Cease-Fire
The Bush administration has taken a sensible position in permitting the Israelis time to clean out the Hezbollah forces close to its border before pressing for a cease-fire. To do anything else would be to ensure that the precise conditions that gave rise to this outbreak of hostilities would remain in effect. That would mean in a couple of years a similar war with similar casualties would commence.
Amid all of the noise and static on CNN about civilian casualties in Lebanon, let's not forget how this war started. After spending six years engaged in massive arming with sophisticated weapons supplied by Syria and Iran, and digging fortresses and tunnels, Hezbollah felt strong enough to strike at Israel. They kidnapped two Israeli soldiers and killed several others. This type of naked aggression cannot be rewarded. Hezbollah cannot be permitted to achieve gains from such a flagrant terrorist attack on another nation. If they do, this will become the standard for the world. We will be faced with hit-and-run attacks by jihadist terrorists throughout the planet. Also, let's not forget what occurred in 1983. Hezbollah suicide bombers blew up U.S. and French barracks, killing 300 troops. One more historical note: Notwithstanding Hezbollah's existence, Israel voluntarily withdrew from all of Lebanon in 2000. The UN Security Council confirmed that this Israeli withdrawal was complete according to internationally accepted maps. Any claims to the contrary about Israeli possession of Shebaa Farms are inconsistent with international law. It is unfortunate that there have been civilian casualties in Lebanon. It is also unfortunate that Israelis have died and been wounded in the rocket attacks, more than a hundred of which have been fired over many days. There is a fundamental difference in these two types of casualties. The Israelis have been making a concerted effort at minimizing civilian casualties while achieving their fundamental objectives. This has meant severing Hezbollah from its resupply in Syria. The task has been difficult because Hezbollah militants have deliberately taken cover in civilian areas. On the other hand, there is no military objective to the Hezbollah rocket attacks. Their objective, firing randomly and often with warheads filled with ball bearings and nails, has been to inflict as much civilian suffering as possible on Israel. As in every war, there is a shift in the tempo of the battle. The Israelis have stepped up their ground attacks in Lebanon, increasing the number of troops going into that country in an effort to hunt out and destroy the Hezbollah positions. This campaign has taken longer than the Israelis initially hoped, but the tide is now turning in their favor. This is why Hezbollah joined the chorus of Europeans in seeking an immediate cease-fire. There is only one rational way for this war to end. That is by having Israel destroy Hezbollah positions and then permitting an armed international force to move into the area separating Israel and Lebanon. The international force cannot be expected to police Hezbollah or to disarm them. Only the Israelis can do that. Once that occurs the Europeans, or Turks or whoever signs on, can take up their positions in the border area in the strip which Israel has cleared in southern Lebanon. After that, the rebuilding can begin in Lebanon. It is possible, under this scenario, that for the first time a real democratic Lebanon can emerge from the rubble of this Hezbollah-commenced war. That can only happen, however, once Hezbollah is fully disarmed and has abandoned its military positions. They may continue to have a voice in the Lebanese government. That is a matter for Lebanon's democracy to determine. However, they cannot exist as a separate military attacking a neighbor and instituting terrorist attacks as a separate army within a nation. There is a great deal riding on this Israeli war. The Israelis are fighting not merely for themselves, but they are also fighting a proxy war on behalf of the United States against Hezbollah's supporter, Iran. The Israelis are also fighting on behalf of the Saudi, Egyptian and Western European governments who face the same risk from attacks by Hezbollah or other militant jihadists. |
About Allan Topol
Allan Topol is a partner in a large Washington-based international law firm. He has a science and engineering degree from Carnegie Mellon, and a law degree from Yale University. For almost 40 years, he has been involved in issues at the height of the Washington power structure.
He is also a national bestselling novelist, using the thriller genre to explore international geopolitical and military issues. His new novel, ENEMY OF MY ENEMY, dealing with an American pilot shot down over Eastern Turkey and Russian nuclear weapons, was released February 1, 2005. His 2001 novel, SPY DANCE, is about a former CIA agent on the run and Saudi Arabian oil. His 2003 novel, DARK AMBITION, deals with the corruption of power in Washington and China's threatening posture toward Taiwan. In January 2004, his new novel CONSPIRACY was released dealing with a foreign leader's attempt to influence an American presidential election and the possibility of renewed militarism in Japan. Allan Topol contact info: Allan Topol Website Email Allan Topol Allan Topol Books: Spy Dance Dark Ambition Conspiracy What's Hot
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