Hanging over the Middle East is the increasing possibility of an armed confrontation between the United States and Iran. While this test of wills is being increasingly played out in Iraq, the Sept 6 bombing in Syria by Israeli jets of either a nuclear or chemical weapons plant has re-opened the old conflicts between Israel, Syria, Iran, Hezbollah, and the Kurds.

Overlooked in the Petraeus-Crocker show last week was the fact that Gen Petraeus's efforts in Iraq are supposed to be part of the Centcom strategy in the Middle East and Central Asia. There have been stories and comments that Centcom, run under the very able command of Adm William Fallon, is starved of the resources necessary to deal with actual threats to American security such as Afghanistan, Iran, and a nuclear-Islamic fundamentalist Pakistan.

There are now dangers of wider war and also some new opportunities for creative diplomacy -- but these issues need to be addressed in order for a negotiated peace to be resolved.

1 -- U.S.-Iranian tensions. This proxy war has the Middle East so entangled that a Syrian-Israeli problem this summer brought forth an unexpected response: when Israeli intelligence detected signs that Syria was mobilizing its military, the Israelis put their own forces on heightened alert. They also contacted Damascus indirectly to suggest that the Syrians stand-down.

An immediate return message from Damascus surprised the Israeli's. The Syrians were afraid that America was about to attack Iran, and the Syrians expected that Iran would retaliate by ordering its Lebanese proxy, Hezbollah, to attack Israel. Since Syria provides Hezbollah both military and political support, they expected that the Israeli's would then attack Syria. The Syrian scenario had the Israelis attacking Syria. Upon this clarification, both countries stood down.

But the Syrian-Israeli relationship remains fragile as seen by Israel's Sept 6 bombing of a Syrian facility. Neither country will comment in detail, which leads to suspicion that the Israeli's knocked out either a chemical weapons or emerging nuclear facility (reportedly  built with North Korean nuclear materials )

2 -- Iraq is now a proxy regional conflict. Too many military forces are engaged: America's openly, Iran's increasingly openly, Kurdish Peshmerga staging attacks into Iran, Iranian artillery responding, plus Saudi, Chechen and other fighters drifting in from Syria, in a proxy battle for control of the Middle East and the massive Iraqi oil fields.  Internally, the American shift to pro-Sunni regional government in Anbar only serves to both marginalize and infuriate Prime Minister Maleki's Shia government while other Shia warlords fight for control of southern Iraq and Basra. Be it a soft partition or an outright declaration of statehood, the chances increase daily of “Sunni-stan” joining Kurdistan as a semi-independent state.

3 -- Pakistan. An Islamic state in turmoil that possesses nuclear weapons and a delivery system. While the fundamentalist Islamic parties only attract some 8-10 % of votes in the last several elections, there is a bigger chance that they would attract a protest vote against President Mushareff ( similar to the Iranians electing Ahmadinijad after President Bush asked them to vote against him ). The Taliban and al-Qaida operate with impunity from the North-West Territories and Waziristan, and recently captured some 300 Pakistani army soldiers. The Taliban is attacking northern Pakistani cities and troops as frequently as they attack into Afghanistan. A destabilized nuclear Islamic enemy is exactly the GWOT enemy President Bush says he is trying to prevent. Who would have thought he'd find it in Pakistan?

4 -- Afghanistan. Supplier of 96 % of the world's opium, the proceeds of which are used to fund the Taliban.With tepid support from the United States and 60 other countries, Prime Minister Karzai finds himself the leader of Kabul and selected cities, as the Taliban grows stronger and bolder in the countryside. For the Coalition to lose control here, it re-creates the state-sponsored sanctuary Al-Qaida is seeking to re-attack America and the West.

5 -- The Palestinian issue. In addition to the Israeli-Palestinian fight, the Palestinians need to resolve their own leadership issues. Sect of State Rice needs to seriously concentrate on helping formalize a true Palestinian state. This will enable the Israeli's to concentrate on Hezbollah to their north, as a viable Palestinian state reduces Iran's influence and ability to interfere by a huge amount.

6 -- Lebanon. With Iran's influence waning, it makes it easier for the Lebanese to end the stand-off between the U.S.–supported Prime Minister Siniora and Sheik Nasrullah's Hezbollah. If both the US and Iran could mutually back down, then a compromise candidate could become prime minister of Lebanon-the-country instead of Lebanon-the-proxy state.

Woven into this potent mix are crude oil prices, American presidential politics, and Osama Bin Laden. While General Petraeus can tell Sen John Warner that he has 'no idea' if his Surge in Iraq is helping American national security, these are the real-world problems -- and opportunities -- faced by President Bush, Adm Fallon, Sect. Rice, and Centcom today.