The American KIA total in Iraq for May was 127, which made it the 3rd worst month for American casualties since the war began in March 2003. Even worse is the Iraqi death count is even worse; it easily exceeds 2,000 men, women, and children killed monthly. 

At the same time, the Sunnis in Anbar are regaining control of their own cities and towns.  Sheik Sattar and his Anbar Salvation Council have worked hand-in-glove with the Marines of II MEF, and the citizens and tribes have contributed their sons to the cause.

Last week in northwest Baghdad, a Sunni-dominated sect who had tired of the Al-Qaeda and Shia brutality, took up arms in their own defense, and asked the American for assistance.  And the Shia, who continue to dominate the Iraqi Parliament, this week passed a binding resolution this week that will enable them to cancel the United Nations Mandate in December under which American and Coalition troops are fighting in Iraq.  The timing of the UN Mandate Renewal -- just six weeks before the first 2008 Presidential primaries -- could have enormous political consequences.

As American and Iraqi casualties continue to mount, ON Point wants to know: “Is the ‘Surge’ Working?”

Multi-National Force – Iraq  (MNF) military spokesman LtCol Christopher Garver responded to ON Point’s query, and spent considerable time on the telephone from Baghdad discussing the issue.

“It’s not just a question of winning militarily,” LtCol Garver said. “It’s succeeding in the counter-insurgency strategy of ‘clear-hold-secure’ like the Marines did in Anbar that is necessary.” The last of the five brigades returned specifically to Iraq has finally arrived, and will be stationed in Baghdad and the surrounding environs.

The extra 25,000 troops are supposed to be used to suppress the Shia and Sunni militias, various warlords, Jaish-al-Mahdi, and other groups.  As Garver said, “This is a mosaic that is dreadfully complex.”

In every interview in the past months, both the mainstream media and MNF-I have finally recognized what the Marines (primarily 1/6’s LtCol William Jurney), accomplished in Ramadi with Sheik Sattar. In response to the several thousand Sunni men volunteering to join the Iraqi Police, ISF, and similar groups, the Anbar Iraqi Police Academy opened this week in Fallujah.  Iraqi Brig Gen Abdul Karim Khalaf told ON Point that the school would soon hold 3,000 recruits under 200 instructors. 

But this level of calm was due primarily to the Marine concept of establishing outposts in the city.  These outposts were initially Marine-manned, but now have evolved into joint IA-IP-Marine settings. Ramadi, a city of 300,000, has over 70 outposts, security stations, and sub-security stations.  In contrast, Baghdad, a city of 6 million, has a total of 60 outposts (32 joint security stations and 28 combat outposts). Is this enough?

“The number of JSS’s and OP’s are based on conditions,” Garver replied. “It’s also based on the number of troops available, and as mentioned, the last American brigade has just arrived.”

This shortage of available troops has been so acute that three weeks ago, MajGen  Benjamin Mixon, (CG of MNF-North, Diyala area) openly discussed his need for more troops.  As American soldiers squeezed the insurgents in Baghdad, they popped up north in Diyala.  In response, Mixon received 2,000 troops last week.  Additionally, American soldiers have been moved south to Mahmudiyah in order to look for the soldiers kidnapped in early May.

All this serves to dilute the purpose of the surge strategy, which was to flood the Baghdad area with troops, suppress the insurgents, and buy time for the Maliki government to make the compromises necessary to seriously bring the Kurds, Sunnis; and other factions into a viable state structure.

With both the American and Iraqi body counts climbing, and perhaps with an eye on the political climate in both Washington and Baghdad, the American military is looking for the necessary time to make the strategy work. “We are still positioning forces,” said Brigadier General Kevin Bergner today (the new MNFI spokesman who replaced MajGen William Caldwell). “The last brigade is only now arriving, and it takes 30-60 days after arrival for them to be comfortable with their Iraqi Army counterparts, as well as for the locals to accept them.  We have a collective sense that the trends are better, and that the joint security stations and combat OP’s are effective.”

But with President Bush having announced his surge strategy last December, this may be a situation of too little, too late.  The Maliki government’s credibility as an impartial federal authority is regularly questioned. While Prime Minister Maliki has made two trips to Anbar in his year in office, the remaining members of his government continue to short-change the Sunnis in money and services, according to Sheik Sattar and Ramadi’s Mayor Latif.

LtCol Garver disputed this, and indicated that the Maliki government was more inept than malicious.  But a recent strategy review submitted to Gen Petraeus says that the Maliki government is both; that Iraq is a ‘failed state,’ and that the United States needs to ensure that the many Iraqi ministries work properly.  As funds barely dribble out of Baghdad into the countryside, it is no surprise that the Maliki government is viewed with such suspicion by those in Anbar who have already partnered with U.S. Marines.

The winter arrest of Maliki’s assistant Minister of Health for diverting millions of dollars worth of medical equipment to the army of Moqtada al-Sadr is evidence of both a lack of governmental control as well as a serious problem in allegiance.  Moqtada’s influence is a cloud that hangs over the Maliki government.  And the Shia-run plan of driving every Sunni out of Baghdad, Diyala, and Babil Province -- which is neighborhood-oriented ethnic cleansing -- gerrymanders the voting demographics in a way that will let the Shia win every future election.

At the same time, the Bush Administration last week leaked plans to draw down American troops in 2008 just as MajGen Mixon and others are looking for additional troops.  Now, BrigGen Bergner is asking for a 30-60 day window for the new troops to get up to speed. How this matches with President Bush’s announced plan for Gen Petraeus and Ambassador Ryan Crocker to brief Congress in September will be interesting to watch. Gen Petraeus and Amb. Crocker will be reporting on the success or not of his overall insurgency strategy, while the President and Congress are looking for an overall “are we winning or losing” type of an answer.

What will not be interesting to watch, however, is Prime Minister Maliki’s continued dithering.  In the coming weeks, the Shia will increase their stranglehold on the central government, and the American body count will continue to climb.