The Defense Department's new blueprint for the U.S. armed forces calls for modest changes to both conventional and strategic forces, a range of new capabilities to deal with terrorist networks as well as potential major adversaries like China, and a host of reforms to the defense bureaucracy that could significantly alter how the Pentagon acquires new weapon systems, according to a draft of the 2005 Quadrennial Defense Review obtained by InsideDefense.com.

To improve proficiency against terrorist networks in what it repeatedly calls “the long war,” the 128-page document, dated Jan. 18, calls for expanding the ranks of Special Forces by 15 percent and boosting the number of psychological operations and civil affairs units in the armed forces by one third. A dedicated Air Force unmanned aerial vehicle squadron will also be established and assigned to U.S. Special Operations Command, according to the report.

These actions are part of what the draft report calls a “vanguard” set of recommendations from the 2005 QDR that are funded in the Pentagon's fiscal year 2007 spending request, which will be delivered next month to Congress along with copies of the QDR report. Required by law to be conducted every four years, the QDR is designed to anticipate the needs of the armed forces for the next two decades and provide a guide to near-term decisions about the size, shape and capabilities of the U.S. military.

While the QDR report includes a number of decisions with near-term budget implications, it is designed to set the framework for deliberations within the Pentagon in the coming months that will influence the fiscal year 2008 to 2013 spending plan. The report, the first to be conducted while the nation is at war and the second conducted by Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld, outlines a new force planning construct that underscores the significance of the U.S. military commitment in Iraq and Afghanistan.

“For the foreseeable future, steady state operations, including operations as part of a long war against terrorist networks, and the associated rotation base and sustainment requirements, will be the main determinant for sizing U.S. forces,” states the strategy.

Still, the QDR calls for the Defense Department to prepare to deal with long-term challenges of facing a near-peer military competitor, such as China. The report calls for developing a wider range of conventional and non-kinetic deterrent options for deterring nations with significant conventional armed forces.

The QDR also calls for two major program actions to deal with challenges in the Asia-Pacific region: The Navy is to double its attack submarine procurement rates -- from one boat a year to two -- in 2012; and the Air Force is to accelerate by nearly two decades its plans to build a new long-range bomber, fielding a new aircraft class in 2018, as InsideDefense.com first reported Jan. 12. Some officials wonder whether either service will be in a position to afford such new starts given the existing portfolio of ships and aircraft both maintain.  

The review, as reported in recent weeks, leaves intact all of the military services' most prized weapon system programs. In fact, some programs will see significant increases: The Pentagon plans to buy enough additional Global Hawk and Predator unmanned aerial vehicles to nearly double today's capacity, according to the draft QDR report.

Many involved in the review believed at the outset that the QDR might call for a resource shift between the departments -- specifically from the Air Force and Navy to the Army -- that did not materialize.

The Air Force, which set as its highest goal for the QDR the protection of the F-22A fighter, managed to extend production two years beyond 2008, which means it can work to win support from the next presidential administration or Congress to keep the stealthy fighter aircraft production line going beyond the planned 183-aircraft buy.

Similarly, the Navy in late November was granted permission to move ahead with its next-generation DD(X) destroyer program, which will consume a big chunk of the service's shipbuilding account as the QDR-directed enhanced submarine procurement is set to kick in.  

“What they've done, in effect, is say, ‘Yeah, Rummy, we'll make all these promises. Of course, you're not going to be around to hold us to them. In the meantime, we will sustain our programs and build program momentum with Congress and industry,'” said a source familiar with the QDR findings.

As for the Army, the QDR confirms the service has protected its top priority, the Future Combat Systems program, which the draft report says will be incorporated into the modular Army “through a spiral development effort that will introduce new technologies as they are developed.”

The QDR also lays out in broad terms what that modular Army will look like, with modular brigades -- including its new brigade combat teams -- “in all three Army components: 117 in the Regular Army (42 BCTs and 75 support brigades); 106 in the Army National Guard (28 BCTs and 78 support brigades); and 58 support brigades in the U.S. Army Reserve,” the report states. “This equates to a 16 percent increase in readily available combat power and a better balance between combat and support forces.

The QDR also leaves intact the Marine Corps' top priorities, including the V-22 Osprey and its Expeditionary Fighting Vehicle.

Rumsfeld directed the 10-month review to explore what new capabilities the military needs to effectively deal with a wider set of challenges than major wars against conventional adversaries. Among these challenges, the QDR examined what new capabilities the United States requires to defend the homeland and prevent hostile states and terrorists from acquiring or using weapons of mass destruction.

The QDR calls for the creation of a new expeditionary headquarters element, led by a three-star officer, to oversee units trained to hunt down and render safe nuclear weapons that have fallen into the hands of terrorists.

The draft report also outlines a single new initiative for defending the homeland -- a $1.5 billion effort to improve defense against biological weapons. However, the Pentagon over the last year has taken numerous steps to detail its new homeland defense plans, including issuing a new strategy and working with other executive agencies to develop a maritime defense strategy.

Key QDR conclusions previously reported by InsideDefense.com include a move to give combatant commanders a more central role in determining budget and policy priorities.

“The 2005 QDR provides new direction for accelerating the transformation of the department to focus more on the needs of combatant commanders and to develop portfolios of joint capabilities rather than individual stove-piped programs,” states the report.

Giving combatant commander a central role in determining what new weapon system programs to develop and procure “should reduce unnecessary program redundancy, improve joint interoperability and streamline acquisition and budgeting processes,” the draft states. -- Jason Sherman

Editor's Note: InsideDefense.com has reprinted lengthy excerpts from the Jan. 18 draft QDR document, which can be read and downloaded by all subscribers. A link to the excerpts is on the main page of InsideDefense.com.

Non-subscribers can access the excerpts at http://www.defensenewsstand.com .