Swiss and Brazilian fighter competitions are edging closer to a decision, but industry officials fear both projects may unravel this year.

The Brazilian air force says it concluded its technical review, although that document has not yet been submitted to the defense ministry.

Timing on the Swiss program is also up in the air, although the aircraft evaluation is complete. A first draft of the nation's strategic defense review is due in the spring; however, Defense Minister Ueli Maurer recommends that the program to partially replace 54 F-5s be postponed so that the money can be spent on more urgent defense needs. Maurer reiterated the call to hold off on the fighter plan in his year-end review.

The government so far has been reluctant to embrace Maurer's view. Another unknown is whether a decision on the project comes in the spring, once the strategic review's first draft is finished, or whether politicians will wait until the fall when the final document is ready, says a Swiss defense ministry official. A type selection will be announced only after a project go-ahead is given.

Operational effectiveness in air-to-air combat is the dominant criterion in Switzerland's evaluation, but a number of other elements are playing roles. For example, industrial participation and military cooperation constitute 25% of the overall grade.

Noise footprint also will be a factor and could be critical due to Switzerland's constrained airspace. The government scrutinized all three candidates -- the Eurofighter Typhoon, Saab Gripen and Dassault Rafale -- during their trials. The results were mixed, but clearly all would be louder than the F-5.

The Typhoon -- flying at an altitude of 305 meters (1,000 ft.) with afterburner -- had the highest peak noise level (114 dB.), followed by the Rafale and Gripen; the F-5 benchmark is 106 dB., according to a Swiss government document. The order among the three candidates was the same when operating at maximum power, with Typhoon at 110 dB., Rafale at 108 dB. and Gripen at 105 dB. A 10-dB. difference represents a doubling of the noise footprint, the Swiss say.

However, peak noise is only one part of the evaluation process. The Swiss documents indicate that noise footprint varied considerably. In light configuration, with the aircraft accelerating from maximum speed to afterburner, the Rafale's nose-on footprint was the largest. How the variance in performance between different mission profiles will be assessed is not clear.

In Brazil, as in Switzerland, the industrial content will be a key criterion. While reports from Brazil suggest that Saab's Gripen has won favor with the air force, how the offset packages offered by Boeing (for its F/A-18 contender), Dassault and Saab will be judged has not yet been determined.

In addition, there are growing anxieties that delays have mounted to the point that a decision may not occur before the nation's political focus turns to general elections. Defense Minister Nelson Jobim is expected to step down in April to begin his political campaign as part of the October general elections, which will also decide the next president. The incumbent, Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, is barred from seeking a third consecutive term.

Meanwhile, many industry officials are worried that if a decision is not made in the next few months, it may not happen this year -- and then the fighter-modernization effort could be subject to a reassessment by a new administration. But there are doubts this will happen, because it would echo the demise of the original F-X competition.

Last year, Lula declared he was in favor of Brazil buying the Rafale, in return for France helping to develop (and buy) some of Embraer's KC-390 tanker/transports. The statement came before the actual competition had run its course, and the military insisted that the F-X2 process be allowed to finish, giving competitors an extension on their offer and Saab and Boeing a chance to up their industrial partnership plans.

That the Rafale rivals remain committed to pursuing the Brazilian program, for an initial batch of 36 aircraft, was spotlighted again last week when Selex Galileo signed a memorandum of understanding with Brazil's Atmos Sistemas covering potential collaboration on active, electronically scanned array (AESA) radar technology. Selex is providing the Raven ES-05 AESA fire-control radar for the Gripen NG.

With Douglas Barrie in London.

Photo: Dassault