Sorting Out the Conference Expansion Saga
Dave Curtis and Matt Hayes - SportingNews.com
Jun 17, 2010
Sporting News college football columnists Dave Curtis and Matt Hayes weigh in on four questions regarding conference realignment.
First down
If the Pac-10 winds up with just Colorado and Utah after all the ruckus, does it look the silliest in all this conference expansion madness?
Curtis: No. Missouri would be my candidate for silliest -- seemingly every state leader campaigned for a Big Ten invitation that never came. But I don't think anyone looks silly coming out of this. The Pac-10 missed out on its jackpot scenario of Texas, Oklahoma and whatever else needed to come along. That would have made for a lucrative television network and marked the first step in the super-conference era. But with two additions, the league will get a boost in its TV deals, creep eastward with its membership and set itself up for another run at the big boys in a few years. Nice try, Larry Scott. Your league's going to be fine.
Hayes: It was one way or the other: acclaim for shrewd negotiations that landed half of the Big 12, or criticism for adding one or two schools that don't move the needle. But the Pac-10 got one important television market (Denver) and could get another (Salt Lake City) if/when Utah is invited. Is it enough to generate significant proposed Pac-10 Network revenue? I doubt it. In fact, I doubt all these crazy numbers being floated by experts -- some even saying the Big Ten could make $40 million per team within the decade. You're not making $40 million per team -- or $480 million per year clear of the cost of running the network -- on subscription fees. You need advertising. Watch the BTN for an hour and see how much advertising (not from its universities) is on the network.
Second down
What's your timeline before the Big 12 implodes again, especially with Texas having even more power now and the animosity inevitably increasing in the league?
Curtis: Tricky question, with all the moving parts, but let's say 10 years. The key things to watch here are the continued growth of the Big Ten Network and the success of Bevo TV, or whatever the proposed University of Texas network is called. The next step, for me, is the Pac-10's realization that it doesn't have the national names to match the Big Ten's reach. People coast-to-coast care far more about Ohio State, Michigan, Penn State and Nebraska than USC, UCLA, Oregon and Washington. The Pac-10 will see it needs Texas to thrive, and likely will make significant concessions, a la the Big 12, to get the Longhorns.
Hayes: The Big Three -- Texas, Oklahoma and Texas A&M -- aren't going anywhere. They've got a posh setup with the ability to keep any money generated from their own television networks. And seriously, what are the other seven going to do? Leave? That'll never happen. Not only are there no other options (the Big Ten and Pac-10 -- after Utah -- should be done expanding), but the seven other teams in the Big 12 are fortunate to be where they are. Without the Big Three, the Little Seven have nothing.
Third down
What does your gut say: Is the Big Ten finished at 12 schools?
Curtis: Yes. Notre Dame has gone from long shot to no shot as a member in this go-around. (And by the way, if you want to see university administrators turning cartwheels, check out South Bend, Ind.). Without the Irish, there aren't enough home-run schools (Jim Delany's term) to make further expansion a lucrative proposition. Search the speculated schools -- Maryland, Rutgers, Syracuse -- and you won't find one that will bring significant new revenue to the league. It's not there. So the Big Ten will hold for now.
Hayes: Completely finished. Here's something else: If Nebraska had stayed in the Big 12, the Big Ten wouldn't have expanded at all. The league wanted one more shot at Notre Dame and tried to concoct a scenario in which Notre Dame would cave under the pressure of all hell breaking loose. And it didn't work. You can't fault the Big Ten for taking one more shot. Nebraska is a terrific consolation prize and completes the league.
Fourth down
Big 12 commish Dan Beebe: Genius or lucky?
Curtis: He's more than lucky. Genius might be too strong. Let's credit him for resiliency and perseverance. The best thing Beebe did in the last week was not give up on his league. Most of the credit belongs to the television networks pledging the dollars to save the Big 12. And some goes to the conference's other schools (Kansas, K-State, Iowa State, etc.) that made things even better money-wise for the big boys. Beebe connected everything, though, and deserves a slap on the back. But genius isn't the right term either.
Hayes: Unbelievably lucky. Texas is the big winner in this entire process. The Longhorns wanted to start their own network and keep all the money, and they wanted more money from the Big 12 television package -- and got both. All it took was a little flirting with the Pac-10. The Big 12 caved, ESPN and Fox and other college administrators caved -- trust me, no one wanted this mass expansion -- and found a way to make it work.
Dave Curtis is a writer for Sporting News. E-mail him at dcurtis@sportingnews.com.
Matt Hayes covers college football for Sporting News and is an analyst for the NFL Network. Tune in to Total Access weeknights. E-mail him at mhayes@sportingnews.com.
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