NFL Playoff Predictions at the Quarter Pole
Mike Florio - SportingNews.com
Oct 07, 2009
Already, four weeks of the NFL season are in the books. So why not wish away the next 13 weeks and try, based on current trends, to determine which teams will make it to the postseason and why?
What's that, you say? It's meaningless?
Yes, it is. Just as meaningless as handing out best/worst player awards based on four games. ... Like everyone else is doing.
Let's start in the AFC.
The East division has separated quickly, with two 3-1 franchises and two at 1-3. The schism (it's now a football word, right?) likely will continue, with the Dolphins likely to eventually break free from the Bills.
It'll come down to the Patriots and the Jets, and it will hinge on their rematch on Nov. 22 in Foxborough.
The Patriots looked rough early, but they've been impressive lately, showing good run-pass balance and quiet determination to win each week.
So while the Jets have gotten the press (and finally a big-name wideout who might or might not be able to catch footballs), for now it appears the Patriots will end up with the prize -- and they'll be a tough out in the postseason.
The North is suddenly one of the best divisions in the league, with the Ravens and Bengals knotted at 3-1, and the Steelers scratching their heads at 2-2. The Browns are, well, still the Browns.
Though the Ravens seem to be the class of the division, the Steelers will be hard to beat once safety Troy Polamalu returns.
Despite the rough start, coach Mike Tomlin has overcome bigger coaching challenges -- and as of now it looks like he'll find a way to get it done.
The South is the easiest of the four, by far. Barring an eight-game injury to Peyton Manning, the Colts could win this division by eight games.
In the West, the Chargers were supposed to lap the field. But the Broncos unexpectedly hold a two-game lead.
Still, the Broncos have a tough schedule, and they'll possibly need to sweep the Chargers in order to hold them off.
For now, there's a general sense they won't, and San Diego will again close the gap.
The obvious candidates for the wild-card chase are the Jets, Ravens, Bengals, and Broncos. For now, the signs are pointing to New York and Baltimore. Check back with me in a month, when I can break out this topic again.
The NFC presents a far murkier crystal ball. Every division -- except for one -- remains a toss-up.
In the East, the Giants have control and injuries will be a major factor in determining whether they can hold it.
The development (or not) of the Philly defense will be a factor as well, since the offense is solid and, upon the coming return of Donovan McNabb, poised to get a lot better.
Though the Cowboys and the Redskins have been disappointing so far, they're both 2-2, and in position to get into the race. If they can get hot. For now, it's the Giants.
The North gets a lot more interesting. Though already separated by two games, the Vikings, Bears, and Packers seem destined to battle all year long, possibly with only one of the trio getting a spot in the playoffs.
There's a sense a division title is inevitable for the Vikings, and that if Brett Favre can stay healthy, this team will be heading deep into the playoffs.
The South is supposed to be one of the best divisions in the league, but it's hard to make that case with two teams (the Panthers and the Buccaneers) a combined 0-7. So it comes down to the Saints and the Falcons. Their home-and-home battle, beginning Nov. 2, will likely decide this one.
Based on the first four weeks, New Orleans has the edge.
The West already belongs to the 49ers, whose three wins have come against their division rivals. Those three teams are a combined 2-9.
One of the wild cards will likely go to the second-place team in the NFC South. The final spot will entail a rugby scrum involving the Eagles, Cowboys, the second-place and third-place teams in the NFC North, and maybe the Redskins, Seahawks, and/or Cardinals.
Though the eventual playoff field won't be clarified until late in the season, several teams already can be scratched. Barring a miracle, the Bills, Browns, Titans, Raiders, Chiefs, Lions, Buccaneers, and Rams won't sniff the list of potential playoff teams.
That's 25 percent of the league, already destined to be on the outside looking in.
At least they'll get a front-row seat for the jockeying among the teams that still have a chance to get in.
Mike Florio writes and edits ProFootballTalk.com and is a regular contributor to Sporting News. Check out PFT for up-to-the minute NFL news.
----
Sound Off...What do you think? Join the discussion
Copyright 2009 by SportingNews.com
 |
 |
