How Programs Fare When Players Leave Early for NFL
Matt Crossman, Dave Curtis -- SportingNews.com
Jan 14, 2011
Andrew Luck is staying. Ryan Mallett is going. And on Thursday, Cam Newton announced his plans for April's NFL Draft.
The end of college football's postseason means the beginning of draft season, particularly for high-profile underclassmen. They have until Saturday to declare for the 2011 NFL draft and until Tuesday to remove their names again.
The decisions made in the past few days, and in the few days to come, would seem to shape a program's fate. And this year's player choice included a new twist -- NFL labor uncertainty.
The league's pending lockout could leave 2011's drafted rookies sitting out for a season instead of finishing their college careers. Plus, the league's new collective bargaining agreement might implement a new rookie wage scale designed in part to end the exorbitant guaranteed dollars top draft picks are collecting.
"The labor situation in the NFL right now is something each one of these guys had to evaluate as a reality of how it could affect their development," Alabama coach Nick Saban told reporters early this month. Saban's Crimson Tide are expected to lose three juniors to April's draft. "Every guy did that."
An Associated Press report this week indicated than an average of 46 players had entered the draft early over the past 10 years. A similar total is expected when the process finishes next week.
A Sporting News look at the past five drafts show little correlation between losing players early and win-loss record over the long term.
Over the past five NFL drafts, Florida saw 13 players leave early, more than any other program in the country. The Gators won two national titles over that span. But losing five starters from the 2009 Sugar Bowl champs seemed to catch up some with UF in 2010, when the team went 8-5.
Southern Cal and Ohio State each saw 11 players leave early, and joined the Gators as the programs to lose players in each of the five drafts studied. Like Florida, Ohio State maintained coaching continuity and recruited well enough to remain a national contender. Southern Cal remained in those ranks, too, until the departure of coach Pete Carroll and a set of NCAA sanctions set back the program.
Other schools have maintained a larger share of players to stay competitive. Texas' Aaron Williams has declared early for the draft, making him just the sixth Longhorn in Mack Brown's 13 years to do so. None of the Texas players left before the program's national championship and 2006 Rose Bowl victory over Southern Cal.
Auburn and Oregon, which played Monday for the national championship has averaged fewer than one early defection over the 2006-10 drafts.
Clemson, meanwhile, has experienced mixed success. Talented back C.J. Spiller stayed for his senior year and helped the Tigers to an ACC Atlantic Division title. This winter, the program expects to lose defensive end Da'Quan Bowers, who is projected by some analysts as the probable No. 1 pick.
Sporting News' Pro Football War Room includes Bowers among players in the mix for the No. 1 selection.
Clemson coach Dabo Swinney said he tries to take a consistent approach when helping players decide. But the labor unrest, and the likelihood of new parameters for first contracts, has altered things some.
"My opinion has always been, previously, if you can be a Top 15 pick, I would say you go," he said. "That's been my general rule. Now, the money is so different, that's probably going to change for me once the collective bargaining gets worked out."
Some schools' tendencies can be tracked according to coaching changes. After not losing a player early from 2006-2008, Alabama has lost four in the past two drafts and is expected to have three more go early this month. The reason? Saban and his staff recruited some of the players and developed all of them.
Players staying in school have clearly helped programs on their rise from mediocrity to conference prominence, or even the top of the national polls. Over the last five completed drafts, Michigan State, Missouri and Nebraska all lost just one player. Cincinnati's zero early entrants helped coach Brian Kelly score consecutive league titles; Stanford, which returned to the BCS in 2010, also benefited from a lack of players leaving.
Georgia Tech, on the other hand, lost four players from its 2009 ACC Championship team that played in the Orange Bowl. This year's Yellow Jackets slipped to 6-7, with an Independence Bowl loss to Air Force.
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