AFC Coaches on the Hot Seat

Mike Florio - SportingNews.com

Ever since the NFL has come into existence, there have been coaches on the hot seat. In the modern NFL, however, they all are.

Some seats are hotter than others. Some are merely a comfortable state of lukewarm. But in a zero-sum game that produces no winner without a loser, consistently being on the wrong side of the final score can turn a sensation akin to a heating pad set to "low" into an inferno.

Just ask Cam Cameron, who was run out of Miami in 2007 after winning one game in his one and only season as coach of the Dolphins.

So the only way to properly gauge the NFL hot seat is to do so for every coach. And, like that heating pad, each coach will be rated based on low, medium, high, or some variation thereof.

Onto the AFC. Check back later for the NFC edition.

AFC East

Dick Jauron, Bills. Seats don't get much hotter than the one on which Jauron is sitting. An impulsive decision to reward Jauron during a successful run to start the 2008 season with a new three-year deal nearly wasn't enough to save him after another disappointing finish. The fact that Jauron fired offensive coordinator Turk Schonert only ten days before the season opener proves that Jauron is in trouble -- and that he knows it.
Hot seat setting: Extra high.

Tony Sparano, Dolphins. New owner Stephen Ross seems to be more interested in establishing a roster of entertainment partners than putting a Lombardi Trophy in the case. But even if Ross were prepared to demand a high level of success, getting rid of Sparano would be expensive. Besides, VP of football operations Bill Parcells surely would trigger his money-for-nothing escape clause if Sparano were jettisoned, making the move even more costly for a billionaire real estate developer, who, like most billionaire real-estate developers, has seen his net worth shrink over the past couple of years.
Hot seat setting: Extra low.

Bill Belichick, Patriots. Though the model franchise of the first decade of the 21st Century recently has shown a willingness to dump players who have overstayed their welcome, Belichick is several years of mediocrity away from experiencing similar treatment. Still, it'll be interesting to see whether Belichick can continue to effectively spot talent and manage the roster without Scott Pioli there to nudge him toward making the best decisions.
Hot seat setting: Low.

Rex Ryan, Jets. First-year coaches rarely are in trouble, but a total collapse in 2009 could prompt owner Woody Johnson to fire GM Mike Tannenbaum, which could prompt the new GM to recommend buying out Ryan or, alternatively, demoting him to defensive coordinator.
Hot seat setting: Medium.

AFC North

John Harbaugh, Ravens. Owner Steve Bisciotti loves stability. And Harbaugh had more than enough success in his first year to keep him from the firing line, regardless of the outcome to the 2009 season.
Hot seat setting: Low.

Marvin Lewis, Bengals. In most other cities, Lewis already would be back to working elsewhere as a defensive coordinator, hoping for another shot at a head-coaching gig. In Cincinnati, however, winning takes a back seat to making money. And buyouts are expensive. Still,> Mike Brown isn't afraid to fire a coach when necessary, and another losing season might make it necessary to let Lewis go.
Hot seat setting: Medium-high

Eric Mangini, Browns. In an era where few fired coaches ever get a second chance, Mangini's termination from the Jets turned into an immediate return to the sidelines in Cleveland. But Mangini continues to behave like Belichick without the bling, and he might not last long in his second NFL stint, either.
Hot seat setting: Medium

Mike Tomlin, Steelers. The Steelers have had three coaches since 1969. Tomlin won a Super Bowl faster than any of them. There won't be a fourth coach until Tomlin decides to leave.
Hot seat setting: Absolute zero

AFC South

Gary Kubiak, Texans. The fans expect a first-ever postseason berth. The media expects a first-ever postseason berth. Most importantly, the owner expects a first-ever postseason berth. Absent that first-ever postseason berth, Kubiak could be done.
Hot seat setting: High

Jim Caldwell, Colts. It's never easy to follow a legend. And there's a real sense of uncertainty and turmoil in Indianapolis. A disastrous season for a franchise that has long forgotten its losing ways could be enough to make Caldwell the next Ray Handley or Richie Petitbon. Still, with Peyton Manning around, it's unlikely that the Colts will fail.
Hot seat setting: Medium

Jack Del Rio, Jaguars. That five-year extension Del Rio signed after an unexpectedly strong 2007 season saved him from getting fired after last year's collapse. With the team unable to sell tickets in 2009, he'll likely get another pass if the team stinks it up again.
Hot seat setting: Medium

Jeff Fisher, Titans. Fisher has led the Titans since they were known as the Oilers and played in the Astrodome. But as each year passes without a Super Bowl win, there's a chance that owner Bud Adams will decide it's time for a change. Last year's 13-3 record followed by a one-and-out postseason could make Adams antsy if the team doesn't get closer to that Super Bowl title the team never has won.
Hot seat setting: Medium-low

AFC West

Josh McDaniels, Broncos. A rocky offseason has erased McDaniels' grace period, requiring him to show right away that he can be successful. Still, it would take two wins or fewer to get McDaniels fired after only one season. In a division that features the Chiefs and the Raiders, it shouldn't be difficult for McDaniels to keep his job, even with Kyle Orton at quarterback.
Hot seat setting: Medium-low

Todd Haley, Chiefs. For a team that has won only six total games over two seasons, expectations are about as low as they can be. And the former Cardinals offensive coordinator will have a couple of years to turn around a franchise with problems that apparently run far deeper than a roster of players that couldn't consistently win games. Still, in a very bad AFC West, winning two games or fewer could turn up the heat come 2010.
Hot seat setting: Low.

Tom Cable, Raiders. He's the head coach of the Raiders. So he'll always be on the hot seat. The swirling allegations that he broke an assistant's jaw don't help matters, either. Though that alone won't get him fired, it'll make it easier for owner Al Davis to pull the trigger if the losses mount.
Hot seat setting: High, with the knob removed

Norv Turner, Chargers. Things are looking good for the Chargers this year, but the stakes are still high for Turner. Twice fired from other head-coaching jobs, failure to win the weakest division that the NFL has seen in years will surely get him fired for a third time.
Hot seat setting: High

Mike Florio writes and edits ProFootballTalk.com and is a regular contributor to Sporting News. Check out PFT for up-to-the minute NFL news.

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