Gauging the LeBron Effect
Sean Deveney - SportingNews.com
Jun 28, 2010
Not much about this summer's class of free agents can be taken for granted. For example, you might expect NBA commissioner David Stern to be wringing his hands over the possibility of his most identifiable stars pulling up their roots and heading elsewhere, potentially devastating some markets -- most notably the prospect of LeBron James leaving Cleveland. But Stern is sanguine on the subject.
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There are some assumptions with free agency that, it seems, we can make. Indications are Dwyane Wade will stay in Miami and Dirk Nowitzki will remain in Dallas. We can assume rebuilding teams like Washington, Minnesota and Sacramento will not be in the market for top players. And though the Clippers will make big pitches to the big names, franchise history suggests they won't land one.
But on the biggest question -- that of James' destination -- the tea leaves are still tough to read. Wade and the Heat have been mentioned as potential suitors , but it seems the three likeliest destinations are back to Cleveland, Michael Jordan's neighborhood in Chicago and the bright lights of Broadway. And depending on the day, the leader among those three shifts.
What is certain is that whatever James does will set off a domino effect -- maybe more like a tsunami effect -- around the league.
Scenario 1: LeBron re-signs with the Cavaliers
Tipping point: By choosing to return to his hometown team, James gives a nod to loyalty and his vow to bring a championship to Ohio. But he returns to a team that, though stocked with name players, is seriously flawed and has stumbled through an awkward offseason with the departure of its coach and general manager. "The big piece for us this summer, obviously, is LeBron James," says new G.M. Chris Grant. "We have a plan in place that we are going to follow through free agency. I am not going to get into specifics on what the plan is, though. … But he knows how important he is to northeast Ohio."
Chain reaction: Chicago signs Chris Bosh and completes a sign-and-trade for Joe Johnson (Bosh recently said the Heat were high on his list)..
And then … Including Derrick Rose, the Bulls trot out a starting lineup with three All-Stars. It's a good young group, though short on playoff experience.
What about the Knicks? Their first three targets accounted for, New York lures Amare Stoudemire out of Phoenix and focuses on adding secondary free-agents. And the Heat? Welcome, Carlos Boozer.
Scenario 2: LeBron signs with the Bulls
Tipping point: With the Bulls, James is set up to win right away, and one NBA executive believes the LeBron-to-Chicago scenario is a done deal. They have good young talent, particularly Derrick Rose and Joakim Noah, and James fits the part of dominant scorer they were lacking. "We've got a good young core here," Noah says. "We got a great city; we're a team on the rise. I think anyone would want to play with us."
Chain reaction: Chris Bosh joins James in Chicago in a sign-and-trade with the Raptors.
And then … Bosh has been very productive as a star, but he really thrives in a complementary role. The Bulls become the Eastern Conference favorites.
What about the Knicks? This is not exactly New York's dream situation, but coach Mike D'Antoni organizes a Suns reunion by signing Joe Johnson and Amare Stoudemire.
And the Heat? Welcome (again), Carlos Boozer.
Scenario 3: LeBron signs with the Knicks
Tipping point: He has the market he wants, a suite to watch his beloved Yankees and the eternal hatred of whatever Cavs fans will continue to show up at Quicken Loans Arena. He doesn't have much of a team around him, but his plan for global domination is right on target in the Big Apple. "It's a great place to play, it's got great fans, and you go to work at Madison Square Garden," Knicks guard Chris Duhon, another a free agent, says. "What can be better than that?" (The Knicks reportedly aren't pinning all of their hopes on LeBron, as the team has plans to pursue Johnson, Stoudemire, Wade and Bosh).
Chain reaction: Chris Bosh sheds his low-key status and heads to New York.
And then … The Knicks will keep David Lee, too, and though there are still several holes in the roster, they're shaping up as a 50-win team.
What about the Bulls? They're still looking for a shooting guard and a power forward, so they turn to Joe Johnson and Carlos Boozer.
And the Heat? Welcome, Rudy Gay.
Sean Deveney covers the NBA for Sporting News. E-mail him at sdeveney@sportingnews.com.
This story first appeared in the June 21 edition of Sporting News magazine. If you are not receiving the magazine, subscribe today, or pick up a copy, available at most Barnes & Noble, Borders and Hudson Retail outlets.
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