Vlad has Plenty to Prove in Postseason

Stan McNeal - SportingNews.com

Put Yankees third baseman Alex Rodriguez and lefthander CC Sabathia at the top of the list of players with the most to prove in October. As mega-millionaires, they are expected to produce in the playoffs. For the most part, neither has.

*But let's look now at another superstar. The Angels' Vladimir Guerrero belongs high on the list, too, for different reasons:

*No matter what the Yankees do in October, A-Rod and Sabathia know where they will play in 2010. Guerrero does not. His six-year deal with the Angels is up after the season and they haven't shown great interest in bringing him back (L.A. has a $15 million team option for 2010), even though he has given them fair return on their $85 million investment. Guerrero has won an A.L. MVP award, made four All-Star teams and his .319 batting average is the fourth-best mark in the majors since he moved West.

Even if A-Rod and Sabathia again fall short of expectations, they will be considered among the game's elite players. A poor postseason would put Guerrero's status in even more doubt.

Until recently, he was considered one of the game's best. He was a legitimate five-tool player, with a strong arm in right field and a .300-plus batting average for 12 consecutive seasons. When I've debated Sporting News' All-Decade Team in radio interviews, Guerrero has been mentioned as perhaps our greatest oversight (though it would have been even more difficult to leave off Barry Bonds, Manny Ramirez or Ichiro Suzuki among outfielders). When the time comes, Guerrero deserves to be a first-ballot Hall of Famer.

When that time comes is the question. At 34, Guerrero is only five months older than A-Rod but seems much older. Six years of playing 154 or more games on the concrete turf in Montreal surely sapped some of the sturdiness in his body. His swing-from-the-heels approach likely has twisted his back and shoulders a few times too many. Added weight hasn't helped the stress on his knees, either.

"He can't play the field anymore," a veteran scout says. "And his bat speed clearly has declined."

When Guerrero returned in early August from his latest stint on the DL -- he has missed 61 games this season -- Angels general manager Tony Reagins admitted that the slugger's future would be on the line in the final two months. So far, not bad. Guerrero is hitting .299 with 11 homers and 29 RBIs in his past 49 games. He drove in two runs -- including the first -- in the Angels' 11-0 division-clinching victory Monday night.

Just as telling, Angels manager Mike Scioscia has kept Guerrero in the cleanup spot of one of baseball's most productive lineups. Scioscia wants to keep pressure off young first baseman Kendry Morales by having him hit lower in the order, but the manager also believes Guerrero can handle the task. Among opponents, Guerrero has not lost his reputation as one of the game's most feared -- and free-swinging -- hitters.

Pitchers have learned there is no pitch that Guerrero can't hit. Angels hitting coach Mickey Hatcher, who calls Guerrero the "best bad-ball hitter I've ever seen by far," saw him single on a pitch that literally bounced to the plate earlier this season. That was the second time Hatcher had witnessed such a feat but says it wasn't Guerrero's most impressive escapade with a bad pitch.

Hatcher recalls: "We were playing Milwaukee last year in interleague, and the pitching coach went to the mound. I am sure he was there to tell him to throw his breaking ball in the dirt and Vlad will chase it. Well, he threw a pitch that would have hit Vlad in the front foot but as he went to swing, he lifted up his front foot to get it out of the way and still reached down and hit a home run. The pitcher looked in the dugout at the pitching coach like he didn't know what else to do. I never laughed so hard in my life."

First-year Angel Bobby Abreu has been rightfully credited with bringing patience and discipline to Angels hitters -- well Angels not named Guerrero, that is. He continues to take the fewest pitches of any Angels.

Last week against the Yankees, he was hitting behind Abreu when the Angels were rallying with the bases loaded and a run already in. Abreu drove in a run without swinging the bat by working a six-pitch walk. Guerrero came up and promptly swung at the first pitch. He drilled a grounder down the third-base line that could have cleared the bases except A-Rod made a diving stop and threw out Guerrero.

Guerrero and the Angels wouldn't mind another crack at the Yankees, if both teams reach the ALCS. First, the Angels will have to do something they haven't done during Guerrero's time in Anaheim -- beat the Red Sox in the playoffs. They have lost the past three meetings, including each of the past two first rounds.

Another first-round defeat wouldn't help Guerrero's chances of staying with the Angels, and not even a big October is likely to keep them from chasing a younger slugger such as Matt Holliday or Jason Bay. But a productive postseason certainly could prove that Guerrero isn't as old as he seems.

Stan McNeal is a writer for Sporting News. E-mail him at smcneal@sportingnews.com.

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