Upstart Reds Should Remain on Fast Track to Success
Anthony Witrado - SportingNews.com
Mar 23, 2011
GOODYEAR, Ariz. -- Apparently nobody told the Cincinnati Reds that they weren't allowed to skip a step.
An up-and-coming team normally follows a specific progression before a breakout season finally vaults it into the realm of respectability and, eventually, playoff contention. Occasionally, there are worst-to-first scenarios, but those are anomalies that can often be explained.
But the Reds aren't an anomaly.
They bypassed part of the progression, going from a sub-.500 team with no chance of making the playoffs to a division champion that suddenly looks to be a perennial power in the NL Central.
Cincinnati made a 13-game improvement from 2009 in a division that appeared to have three superior teams. Although injuries to first baseman Joey Votto, right fielder Jay Bruce, third baseman Scott Rolen and righthander Edinson Volquez, among others, stifled their success in 2009, few picked the Reds to finish atop the division even if healthy last season.
"Who thought we were going to be like we were last year?" manager Dusty Baker asked. "But I always ask for more. That's a coach's mantra: Always ask for more."
The Reds can't ask for much more from Votto, the reigning NL MVP. The first baseman led the league with a .424 on-base percentage, .600 slugging percentage, 1.024 OPS and 174 OPS+, in addition to his .324 average, 37 homer, 113 RBIs and 106 runs scored.
In his third full season, Votto couldn't have done much more, proven by his 6.85 Win Probability Added -- a metric that measures a player based on how much he contributes to his team's chances to win. Only Detroit Tigers first baseman Miguel Cabrera had a higher WPA (7.42) last season.
Bruce appears to be following a similar trajectory. Last season, he hit 25 homers, drove in 70 runs and had a .353 on-base percentage, .846 OPS and 127 OPS+. If Bill James' projections are accurate, Bruce should be even better this season.
That raises the question of which Reds player will be the next to reach stardom. And there is no shortage of candidates.
The most obvious ones are on the bump. Lefthander Travis Wood and righthander Mike Leake, who bypassed the minors en route to the Reds, each enjoyed rookie success last season. Each is also assured a spot in the early season rotation because of Johnny Cueto's shoulder injury, and a year of experience should help them better handle the rigors of a long season.
"We've got Wood all year hopefully and we've got Leake all year hopefully," Baker said. "So you expect those guys to be better and really help.
"But there are questions, too. Can you replace Arthur Rhodes' excellence at the end of games?"
Rhodes, last season's primary setup man, posted a 2.29 ERA and 1.02 WHIP and made the All-Star team as a non-closing reliever -- a rarity. With Rhodes gone -- he signed with the Texas Rangers during the offseason -- the Reds will shuttle in Aroldis Chapman and his record-setting 105-mph fastball.
Chapman was impressive in 13 1/3 innings late last season, but it remains to be seen how he will perform during a full season in the majors.
Away from the mound, Drew Stubbs could be the next stud to follow in Votto's path. The center fielder hit .255 with a .329 on-base percentage, 22 homers, and 77 RBIs last season. He also stole 30 bases in 36 attempts in his first full major league campaign.
"If we're going to continue to be contenders, that's going to have to happen," Stubbs said of someone following Votto's breakout year with one of his own. "The guys that are breaking into the league and the future of the organization are going to have to carry that torch."
The Minnesota Twins are an example of an organization that develops its own stars and wins while doing it, and Stubbs likes to think the Reds are becoming a comparable in that department.
It is too early to know for certain, but the Reds believe they have the players in place to stay on top. They made few offseason acquisitions, instead opting to lock up Votto, Bruce, Volquez and righthander Bronson Arroyo with extensions and bringing in only complementary pieces to replace lost ones.
"The Reds have made it clear they are building for the future," Stubbs said. "They have relied on the homegrown guys to get the job done and that's what we're looking to do.
"I don't think it adds any pressure. It gives you an added confidence because you know your organization believes the young guys can get it done. They believe in us and it's exciting."
----
Sound Off...What do you think? Join the discussion
Copyright 2011 by SportingNews.com
