Trouble in the Twin Cities
Stan McNeal - SportingNews.com
May 03, 2011
The Minnesota Twins have been this bad before. Five years ago, a 9-16 start put them nine games back on May 1. They ultimately won 96 games and the AL Central championship.
They used a 19-1 stretch that June to right their ways. Are these Twins capable of such a streak? "I just don't think they have the personnel," says a scout who has watched the club recently. "Their bullpen is not very good and they have a Rochester (Class AAA) lineup in the bottom third of their order."
Injuries have been a factor, but most alarming is how little the Twins are playing like the Twins. Their usually tight defense has been sloppy, and their normally strike-throwing pitchers have been walking too many.
Minnesota was counting on Joe Nathan to return to elite closer status and lead a depleted bullpen, but the 36-year-old has lost some velocity on his fastball and isn't fooling many hitters. According to fansgraph.com, hitters are missing only 14.5 percent of the pitches at which they swing (through Monday), down from his career average of 29 percent.
Offensively, the Twins are last in the majors in homers and runs scored.
The long-term outlook isn't promising. Francisco Liriano is more likely to be traded than become the ace the club once envisioned, and most of Minnesota's other pitchers have reached an upside that is more mediocre than dominant.
Joe Mauer's health might be most troubling of all. In the second year of his $184 million deal that runs through 2018, he is sidelined indefinitely by "bilateral leg weakness and viral infection," ailments that sound way too vague for a just-turned 28-year-old. If the Twins aren't considering a position switch, they should.
The question is where. First base would make the most sense but would require trading Justin Morneau. Given the uncertainty around Morneau -- he hit his first homer Sunday in his comeback from last year's season-ending concussion -- his value is nowhere near what it was this time last year. That would be true even if he wasn't due $14 million a year through 2013.
Even the weather has turned ugly at Target Field after an inaugural season with so much sunshine that concerns about the lack of a roof eased. But summer is coming and the weather figures to improve. Will the Twins follow suit? That seems as up in the air as Mauer's status.
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