Giants Should Pursue a Long-Term Deal with Lincecum

Stan McNeal - SportingNews.com

Earlier this week, Giants ace Tim Lincecum asked for a record $13 million in arbitration. San Francisco countered with an offer of $8 million. If the two sides can't meet somewhere near the middle, next month they will take their cases to the arbitrators, who would pick either the $13 million salary or the $8 million salary. And this same situation could repeat itself the next three seasons if Lincecum and the Giants don't pursue a long-term extension (as the Mariners did this week with ace Felix Hernandez).

Chris Bahr explains why the Giants should avoid taking the long-term route that Seattle took with Hernandez , but Stan McNeal says San Francisco would be wise to lock up Lincecum with an extension:

First reaction when learning that Tim Lincecum is seeking $13 million in arbitration: That's all?

He could have sought $20 million and few would have blinked.

Crazy? Absolutely. Lincecum made $650,000 in 2009. To ask for a $12.35 million raise -- on the same day he is appearing in court on a marijuana charge, no less -- would seem to indicate his thinking is off.

But this is baseball, where salaries make less sense than Mark McGwire press conferences. Everyone knows that no one should make $32 million for playing a game.

Lincecum's case for $20 million, however, would be simple: As the game's best pitcher, he should be the game's highest-paid pitcher. He could make $20 million look like a bargain, considering CC Sabathia will get $23 million and Johan Santana $22.5 million this season.

Another season like his past two and Lincecum likely will ask for $20 million next time. By the time he is finished with four turns through arbitration, he could be looking at Alex Rodriguez-type salaries.

The Giants easily could avoid venturing through all the unknowns of arbitration. Offer the guy a long-term deal. It makes too much sense not to. Consider these hypotheticals:

Let's say the sides agreed to a five-year, $60 million deal. Lincecum would have his security and the Giants would have him locked up through his first year of free agency (the Mariners' five-year, $78 million deal with Felix Hernandez is worth more because it covers three years of free agency).

If the Giants and Lincecum stay the arbitration route and agree to the typical midpoint compromise, Lincecum will end up with $10.5 million in 2010. Continue to perform as he has -- remember, he's 25 and far from his peak -- and he could be in line for $5 million raises every year. Now you're talking salaries of $15.5, $20.5 and $25.5 million from 2011-13.

Using these numbers, the Giants would pay Lincecum $72 million before he becomes a free agent. On the market, his first-year salary would be at least what he made in the previous year. Add that $25.5 million and the Giants are looking at $97.5 million for the next five years. Suddenly, $60 million doesn't look so crazy.

There's risk on both sides when clubs extend players through their arbitration years. Players gain security but possibly sacrifice salary. Clubs save payroll but gamble on players staying healthy and productive.

By not offering a multi-year deal, it seems San Francisco is almost hoping Lincecum struggles or misses time to keep down his value. That is ridiculous, of course. Lincecum is the Giants' franchise player. They want him dominating games for a long time.

The wisest way to keep him is to give him a long-term deal. The sooner, the better.

Stan McNeal is a writer for Sporting News. E-mail him at smcneal@sportingnews.com.

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