Baseball's Most Overrated Statistic
Stan McNeal - SportingNews.com
Sep 24, 2009
On Tuesday night, Royals righthander Zack Greinke and Diamondbacks third baseman Mark Reynolds made headlines for different reasons. Greinke, seeking to polish his AL Cy Young award resume, shut down the mighty Red Sox to pick up win No. 15. Meanwhile, Reynolds struck out three times to break his own single-season strikeout record. It raises the question: Does a pitcher's win total or a hitter's strikeout total mean less?
Chris Bahr argues that a hitter's strikeout total is insignificant, but Stan McNeal explains why a pitcher's win total is even more overrated:
Here's hoping that Royals righthander Zack Greinke doesn't win either of his remaining two starts. This is not written with malice. Greinke is an easy guy for whom to root. He is humble, devoted to his craft and respectful of the game and his peers.
The real hope is that Greinke wins the AL Cy Young award ... without adding another victory.
If Greinke stays at 15 wins and claims the award, he would finish with fewer wins than any winner (starting pitcher) who worked in a season not interrupted by a labor dispute. Recognizing Greinke as the league's best when he isn't among the wins leaders would prove that the experts know what they are voting on. It is time for everyone -- experts and fans -- to realize that a pitcher's wins aren't that big a deal.
Conventional thinking that wins are a primary indicator of a pitcher's success is as misguided as a wild pitch to the backstop. Wins should rank no higher than sixth among the stats that matter, after ERA (Greinke is first in the AL), innings (tied for fourth), batting average against (first), baserunners per nine innings (first) and strikeout-to-walk ratio (second).
Three reasons why:
Wins can be deceiving. Then-Yankee Randy Johnson won 17 games in 2006 but had a 5.00 ERA. Dodgers lefthander Clayton Kershaw has won only eight times this season despite a 2.85 ERA. Johnson was sent packing by the Yankees; Kershaw has emerged as one of the game's top young pitchers. Or consider this: The Dodgers' Randy Wolf has a 3.24 ERA but only 11 wins this season. L.A., however, is 21-11 in his starts, a true indication that Wolf is doing his job of keeping his team in position to win.
Pitchers have only so much control over W's. Twice this season, Greinke held the Angels one run in eight innings and came away winless. He pitched seven shutout innings against the Tigers and didn't get a decision. Six other times he went at least six innings and allowed no more than two runs, yet did not come away with a win. No way should his performance be diminished because of a lack of support.
You don't need wins to cash in. When the Yankees loaded Andy Pettitte's contract with incentives this season, they didn't include a word about his wins. Pettitte was given incentives for innings pitched as well as bonuses for being on the active 25-man roster.
That is standard operating procedure. Pitchers' contracts often include bonuses for making All-Star teams or winning Cy Youngs, MVPs, Gold Gloves or even Silver Sluggers. Their contracts do not include provisions for wins. Negotiators know that wins aren't the most accurate measure of a pitcher's performance.
It's time everyone else knew, too.
Stan McNeal is a writer for Sporting News. E-mail him at smcneal@sportingnews.com.
----
Sound Off...What do you think? Join the discussion
Copyright 2012 by SportingNews.com
