An Early Look at MLB's Free Agent Class

Stan McNeal - SportingNews.com

Magglio Ordonez needs only three more plate appearances to force the Tigers to guarantee his 2010 salary for a cool $18 million. Because he will have his option picked up, Ordonez won't join a free-agent class that can expect organizations to claim they still are feeling the effects of a subpar economy.

An early look at the potential market this offseason:

Best bets for big bucks

1. Matt Holliday, OF, Cardinals. He would have been in line for a nine-figure deal in the old economy but might have to "settle" for something closer to $80 million over four years. Holliday still has plenty in his favor: He has had a strong second half with St. Louis, he is only 29 and his agent is Scott Boras. St. Louis fans shouldn't get too enamored with him.
2. John Lackey, SP, Angels. The big righthander, who turns 30 in October, has pitched well enough lately to cement his status as the market's best available starting pitcher. The chances of Lackey re-upping with the Angels are no better than 50-50.
3. Jason Bay, OF, Red Sox. He enhanced Red Sox general manager Theo Epstein's already considerable reputation by productively and professional succeeding Manny Ramirez. But there is little room for sentiment in Boston's front office. Given a choice, the Red Sox would take Holliday.
4. Chone Figgins, 3B, Angels. Improved discipline has improved his on-base percentage to .400-plus and made him the game's top leadoff hitter this season, guaranteeing him a significant raise from the $5.775 million he is making this season. A prototypical Angel, Figgins says he wants to stay. Just don't talk bring that hometown-discount talk his way; he has heard there will be interest from the big-money teams.
5. Jason Marquis, SP, Rockies. His numbers are similar to another sinkerballer, St. Louis' Joel Pineiro, but Marquis makes this list because he has posted his numbers at Coors Field. Marquis should get a slight bump from his current three-year, $21 million deal, but is he a $10 million a year pitcher? Don't think so.

In line for raises

1. Bobby Abreu, OF, Angels. The Angels will have to pony up more than $6 million (including incentives) to keep him.
2. Fernando Rodney, RP, Tigers. He will enter the market for the first time at an opportune time: coming off a year when he has stayed healthy and proven he can close for a contender. Rodney should at least double his current $2.7 million salary.
3. Russell Branyan, 1B, Mariners. He still strikes out a bunch and still has his detractors, but 31 homers are worth considerably more than $1.4 million.
4. Marco Scutaro, SS, Blue Jays. This everyday shortstop with a .383 OBP (and more walks than strikeouts) will command more than two years and $2.65 million.
5. Randy Wolf, SP, Dodgers. Even with his $5 million salary rising to $8 million after reaching incentives, he has been a value signing for the Dodgers. Wolf shouldn't have to settle for a hometown discount this winter.

Headed for Jason Giambi-like pay cuts

1. Jim Thome, 1B/DH, Dodgers. Last contract: 7 years, $98 million. Predicted next contract: 1 year, $5 million plus a bunch of performance incentives.
2. Miguel Tejada, SS, Astros. Last: 6 years, $72 million. Predicted next: 2 years, $15 million, at most. And it is time to move to third base.
3. Adrian Beltre, 3B, Mariners. Last: 5 years, $64 million. Predicted next: 1 year, $6 million plus a team option with a hefty increase for 2011. Beltre is only 30 and remains a Gold Glove-type third baseman, but he signed his last deal coming off a 48-homer season. This season, he has six.
4. Vladimir Guerrero, DH/OF, Angels. Last: 6 years, $85 million. Predicted next: 2 years, $18 million plus incentives. He looks older than 33 and his bat speed has declined, but he remains the most feared hitter in the Angels' lineup.
5. Jason Schmidt, SP, Dodgers. Last: 3 years, $47 million. Predicted next: Retirement or a minor league deal. His right shoulder has given out.

Keep an eye on

1. Rich Harden, SP, Cubs. He has elite stuff but remains a health risk.
2. Johnny Damon, OF, Yankees. He is coming off a four-year, $52 million deal, he turns 36 in November and he still has a weak throwing arm. But he has been a solid signing for the Yankees and could come back -- but more on the Yankees' terms this time.
3. Hideki Matsui, DH, Yankees. He also is coming off a four-year, $52 million deal. Matsui is slightly younger than Damon but has much crankier knees. New York is unlikely to bring back Damon and Matsui.
4. Joel Pineiro, SP, Cardinals. He is enjoying career-best season (3.21 ERA) at the ideal time, but St. Louis won't be able to afford him. Whichever team signs him will have to consider how Pineiro will pitch without Dave Duncan as his pitching coach.
5. Tim Hudson, SP, Braves. His $12 million option is too pricey for the Braves, but Hudson has shown enough (3.63 ERA) in three starts since coming back from Tommy John surgery that he will have suitors.

Best bets for minor league deals

1. Nomar Garciaparra, 1B, Dodgers. It is hard to believe he is only one year older than Derek Jeter.
2. Khalil Greene, SS, Cardinals. Lowered expectations could be good for him.
3. Brian Giles, OF, Padres. Who will want to take a chance on a 38-year-old with a bad knee and no power?
4. Jason Kendall, C, Brewers. It is time for him to become the mentoring-backup type.
5. Joe Crede, 3B, Twins. His balky back is as much as a problem as his .289 OBP.

Stan McNeal is a writer for Sporting News. E-mail him at smcneal@sportingnews.com.

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