AL Preview: Division Forecasts and Award Picks
Stan McNeal - SportingNews.com
Mar 29, 2011
When the Seattle Mariners sent Dustin Ackley to the minors last week, they did more than clear a spot for another non-roster invitee to make the club. The Mariners officially got the Sporting News' preseason predictions off to a shaky start.
Ackley had been anointed our AL rookie of the year, not the second baseman in Tacoma.
Oh, well. Now would be the ideal time to point out that San Francisco Giants catcher Buster Posey won NL rookie of the year honors in 2010 after starting the season in the minors. It is a long season and we aren't jumping off any of our predictions. Not yet, anyway.
My AL outlook (division winners and awards):
AL East: Boston Red Sox
Why: Adrian Gonzalez and Carl Crawford. Or Carl Crawford and Adrian Gonzalez, which is the order they will hit in the Red Sox's batting order. Either way, adding the game's best left fielder and one of the top four first basemen to an already talented roster gives Boston a slight edge over the New York Yankees.
Worries: A.J. Burnett and Ivan Nova. The Yankees have a lineup to match the Red Sox and have an edge in the bullpen. If Burnett bounces back -- he has pitched well this spring -- and the 24-year-old Nova throws 150 innings, New York's rotation won't be a weak link.
AL Central: Chicago White Sox
Why: Lefthanded-hitting Adam Dunn is the ideal thumper in a lineup that already featured plenty of righthanded power with Paul Konerko, Carlos Quentin and Alex Rios. Dunn never has played at U.S. Cellular Field, but you can pencil him in for 40 homers because of its cozy dimensions. The White Sox also boast a proven rotation and a bullpen stocked with 95-mph-plus fastballs.
Worries: Chicago figures to battle the Minnesota Twins and Detroit Tigers in what shapes up as the majors' best three-team race. In fact, with Justin Morneau ready to return, the Twins begin the season with a stronger lineup than the one that won the division by six games in 2010. And as Tigers hitting coach Lloyd McClendon says, "You have to respect them for what they do every year." The White Sox also have a couple of internal concerns: Jake Peavy's right shoulder and Matt Thornton's ability to close.
AL West: Texas Rangers
Why: The defending AL champions have one of the game's most exciting young lineups with Josh Hamilton, Nelson Cruz, Elvis Andrus and Ian Kinsler. With Adrian Beltre taking over third and Michael Young moving to DH, the Rangers will be able to hit with any club except, perhaps, the AL East behemoths.
Worries: Rarely has a pennant winner suffered such a downer of an offseason. Texas lost out on Cliff Lee, the ace it desperately needed. The Rangers ticked off their leader, Young, who practically is playing under protest. They endured an ownership squabble. The back of their rotation has taken an injury hit. If they can overcome those disappointments, they have the up-and-coming Oakland A's to deal with.
AL wild card: Yankees
Why: They are the majors' second-best team.
Worries: None, really. If Freddy Garcia, Bartolo Colon and Kevin Millwood all fail as the No. 5 starter, the Yankees will waste little time throwing their resources at somebody else.
Player of the year: Adrian Gonzalez, 1B, Red Sox
Why: With a lefthanded swing tailored to go the opposite way, Gonzalez is about to become very chummy with the Green Monster. Anything short of 50 doubles and 30 homers will be a disappointment.
Worries: All the early signs point to the Yankees' Alex Rodriguez having a monster year of his own.
Pitcher of the year: Jon Lester, SP, Red Sox
Why: Well, picking Seattle Mariners ace Felix Hernandez every year would get kind of boring. Lester, 27, is ready to ascend after three consecutive seasons with at least 200 innings and a sub-3.50 ERA.
Worries: Pitching in the AL East can inflate an ERA by at least half a run. Voters were wise enough to overlook Hernandez's low win total last year; maybe they will realize Lester's 3.25 ERA would be closer to 2.25 if he pitched in the AL West.
Manager of the year: Ozzie Guillen, White Sox
Why: If the White Sox indeed take the Central, Ozzie will have to be at the top of his game.
Worries: Though he has spoken much softer so far this spring, Guillen always seems one politically incorrect outburst from the unemployment line. Of course, we've been saying as much since he assumed the White Sox's reins in 2004.
Rookie of the year: Dustin Ackley, Mariners
Why: Ackley displayed his offensive potential when he was named Arizona Fall League MVP, which seemed to put him in line to start at second base for the rebuilding Mariners.
Worries: Japanese second baseman Tsuyoshi Nishioka is a rookie by definition and, more importantly, already has secured a starting job with the Twins.
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