Gaming Predictions for 2010

The Herald

We've taken a look at the larger trends in the game industry in 2009 and extrapolated them into predictions for 2010. This list doesn't try to make vague guesses about the direction of the industry, but rather offer up concrete, testable hypotheses that can be evaluated at the end of the year.

For each prediction, you'll also find odds showing how confident each prediction is, so that in a year's time, you can see if you'd have been better off betting with or against them.

Nintendo Wii sales will decline in North America

Part of this prediction is based on the simple idea that the Wii has nowhere to go but down, after dominating the North American sales charts for so long. With the system recently dropping from $250 to an even friendlier $200, you have to believe that everyone who really wants a Wii will have already bought one by the end of this holiday season.

But this prediction is also driven by the fact that Sony and Microsoft are making a serious push for the market niche Nintendo has carved out -- with lower prices, upcoming motion controllers and a marketing focus on family-friendly gaming.

This doesn't mean those companies' systems will pass the Wii in yearly or even monthly sales, but unless Nintendo has some new gimmick up its sleeve to reinvigorate interest among the already "Wii Fit"-ted masses, don't expect Wii sales to continue at their current heights in 2010.

Odds against: 2 to 1

PlayStation 3 sales will increase in North America

Sony's powerhouse is already starting to see a sales bounce thanks to a lower $299 price point, holiday releases like "Uncharted 2: Among Thieves" and an effective new ad campaign. This trend should continue well into 2010, when anticipated exclusives like "God of War III," "Gran Turismo 5," "MAG," "Heavy Rain" and "The Last Guardian" start rolling in.

As more and more people jump on the HDTV bandwagon through the year, expect Sony's built-in Blu-ray player to make it look like an increasingly compelling all-in-one home entertainment choice to many consumers as well.

Whether the increase will be enough to make the PS3 more competitive with the Xbox 360 and Wii is an open question, but the system seems poised to finally show sales improvement of some kind in the coming year.

Odds against: to 2 to 1

Rhythm-game sales will decline

Activision CEO Bobby Kotick might say the rhythm-game market isn't saturated, but the slashed sales projections for "DJ Hero" tell a different story. Despite healthy sales for "The Beatles: Rock Band" and "Guitar Hero 5" this holiday season, the genre feels like it's struggling for the next big idea that will really drive consumers to open up their wallets for that new, must-have instrument-shaped peripheral.

There's a chance that new idea could come sometime next year, but it seems more likely the genre will start to stagnate under slowly growing disinterest in the same old karaoke, guitar- and drumming- based games.

That said, expect the market for downloadable songs for existing "Rock Band" and "Guitar Hero" platforms to remain strong throughout 2010.

Odds against: 3 to 1

Industry-wide game sales will go up

Everyone knows the recession caused the game industry to hit a bit of a slump this year, so some sort of bounce-back along with the slowly recovering economy seems likely. But an industry recovery seems even more obvious when you look at the blockbuster-heavy lineup of releases that have already been announced for the first half of the year.

"Mass Effect 2," "God of War III," "Heavy Rain," "BioShock 2," "Alan Wake," "Splinter Cell: Conviction," "Final Fantasy XIII," "Gran Turismo 5" and more all make for a first-half lineup that makes even the impressive first half of 2009 look like amateur hour.

And that's all months before the historically strong holiday season, which will likely see more yet-to-be-announced blockbusters. All in all, it's shaping up to be a strong year for gaming.

Odds against: 5 to 4

At least one download-only release will be on the shortlist for the Game of the Year awards

The downloadable-games market went a long way to breaking free of its image as retail's neglected cousin this year, with console releases like "Flower," "Shadow Complex" and the "Bit.Trip" series, indie PC games like "Auditorium" and iPhone games like "Zen Bound" garnering widespread critical acclaim and attention -- if not necessarily sales.

But the consensus picks for 2009's game of the year are still congealing around big-budget, cinematic retail releases. This might not be the case next year, as developers stretch the bounds of what downloadable games can be and increasingly use downloads as a way to get around the used-game-centric retail market.

Maybe "Game of the Year" contention is a little bit lofty, but regardless, expect the downloadable-game market to continue its march toward relevance in the coming year.

Odds against: 10 to 1

No PS3 motion control or Natal-exclusive games will be on the shortlist for Game of the Year

For all the hype surrounding the unveiling of Sony and Microsoft's camera-based motion controllers at this year's E3, the technologies are bound to be disappointments when they actually come out.

After a burst of interest surrounding their release, expect both controllers to be inundated with gimmicky, shallow, motion- controlled games, and both will lack the killer apps needed to really drive widespread adoption.

Without that sort of critical mass, most developers and publishers will only grudgingly support the devices, adding half- hearted camera-control support to games that also have more traditional controls, which critics and consumers will continue to largely prefer.

By the end of the year, the hype will have given way to reality and Sony and Microsoft will slowly scale back their focus on these new controllers, preparing instead to integrate better motion controls into their next consoles.

Odds against: 5 to 4

The PSP Go will drop in price during the first half of the year

Depending on who you listen to, the initial sales numbers for the PSP Go have either been "in line with expectations" (according to Sony) or merited "strong reservations" about the PSP's chances in the U.S. (according to a Gamasutra analysis).

Either way, the redesign has apparently not become the runaway success Sony needed to turn around its portable system's also-ran image. The Go's main problem seems to be the competition, not from Nintendo's DS, but from Sony's own PSP-3000, which offers more functionality, albeit in a clunkier form factor, for a lower price.

As PSP Go inventories start to clog Sony's warehouses, expect it to attempt to clear out the excess by pushing the Go's price to be more in line with the original PSP.

Odds against: 4 to 1

Nintendo will announce a portable Virtual Console of Game Boy classics for the DSi

OK, this one is a bit of wishful thinking. If Nintendo were going to do something like this, it probably would have announced it alongside the DSi Shop and prepared it for the launch of the system.

Still, here's hoping, on the off chance that someone at Nintendo will see this article and say, "Hey, that's a good idea. Let's do it!" Please?

Odds against: 25 to 1

At least one new major console or portable system will be announced

You've already heard hints that the follow-up to the Nintendo DS is in development, and Microsoft has said the next Xbox will launch in 2011 or 2012. This puts both systems on track for some sort of vague official announcement at one of the 2010 trade shows, with an initial hands-on demonstration some months later.

Don't count out the possibility of Sony's announcing a true follow-up to the PSP, either, especially if the system's sales don't pick up fast (see the PSP Go prediction, above).

Expect Nintendo and especially Sony to be a little slower to announce their follow-up consoles, the former because the Wii is still going strong and the latter because Sony has loudly insisted that the PS3 is meant to be on the market for 10 years.

Odds against: 3 to 1

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