Book Review: Shield of Dreams

Military Review

SHIELD OF DREAMS: Missile Defense and U.S.-Russian Nuclear Strategy, Stephen J. Cimbala, Naval Institute Press, Annapolis, MD, 2008, 193 pages, $24.00.

The phrase "shield of dreams" is sufficient to invite the question, "If we build it, will they come?" Cimbala's answer is a resounding, "That depends." For starters, it depends on who they are. The bipolar world of the Cold War is rapidly receding in the rear-view mirror, and a new, multipolar world of both state and nonstate actors and of heretoforeunrealized threats has emerged. These actors possess or could obtain nuclear weapons and may be willing to use them in ways that defy the old Cold War calculus. Thus, as one considers the complexities of life in what Cimbala calls the "second nuclear age," the proposition that a ballistic missile shield could, by itself, make nuclear weapons obsolete seems indeed to be a dream.

What, then, is to be done? In response, Cimbala suggests that ballistic missile defenses can be an important component of a security strategy that continues to include nuclear weapons. Cimbala is not unduly fixated on numbers; he believes that the whole matter is far more nuanced than the numbers alone reveal.

Perhaps the greatest service provided by Shield of Dreams is the occasion it affords to reflect upon what it means to shield against a percentage of incoming nuclear missiles. What does it mean to shield against 50 percent, 20 percent, or 10 percent of a nuclear attack? What percentage defines an effective ballistic missile shield? If every incoming nuclear weapon represents the equivalent of the destruction of Hiroshima (in fact, modern nuclear weapons are substantially more destructive than that), how many "Hiroshimas" can a nation experience before a ballistic missile shield becomes a moot point? As Cimbala points out, ballistic missile defense is no panacea; but if nations carefully consider the role that such defenses can play in a much more comprehensive security scheme, then to that extent, it turns out that such a shield - its sometimes dreamy and elusive qualities notwithstanding - may indeed be an idea whose time has come.

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