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Al
Qaeda ("The Base")
(aka Osama Bin Laden Network; the World Islamic Front for Jihad
Against Jews and Crusaders; Islamic Army for the Liberation of the
Holy Places)
Organization and Leadership
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Until he is captured or confirmed killed, Osama
bin Laden remains the symbolic leader of al Qaeda. Under him are the “shura al-majlis”; an advisory body made up of bin Laden’s lieutenants. His closest advisor is Ayman al-Zawahiri, an Egyptian physician who formerly led the Egyptian Islamic Jihad group. The fate of al-Zawahiri also remains unknown. A tape attributed to Zawahiri appeared on May 21, 2003, and several tapes purportedly made by bin Laden have surfaced since the war in Afghanistan.
Al Qaeda now functions on several different levels. First, there is the core leadership that developed around bin Laden and his lieutenants. The U.S.-led war in Afghanistan essentially dismantled this central hierarchy and at least temporarily hindered its ability to carry out attacks. The terrorist training camps were destroyed, thousands of fighters were captured or killed, and those that escaped were scattered. Subsequent U.S. intelligence successes, such as the March arrest of al Qaeda’s operational commander Khalid Shaikh Mohammed, have further pushed al Qaeda’s leadership to the brink of collapse. Still, new leaders may be emerging - Saif al-Adel, a weapons expert involved in the 1998 embassy bombings in Tanzania and Kenya, has apparently filled the role of operational chief in the wake of Mohammed’s arrest.
Another element of al Qaeda is comprised of increasingly autonomous terrorist cells scattered across the globe. These groups, essentially cut off from the core organization, are now attempting to coordinate attacks on their own. Some intelligence experts view the May 2003 bombings in Saudi Arabia and Morocco as an indication that al Qaeda’s hierarchy has reconstituted itself, but more likely it is a sign that local cells now have the means to carry out operations without the financial or logistical involvement of the leadership.
In addition to the core group and the independent cells, al Qaeda’s model of Jihad has now evolved into a global ideological movement. The British shoe-bomber Richard Reid is an example of this type – a sympathizer who has no actual connection with al Qaeda, but performs a small-level operation in its name. The bombers who carried out the Bali bombings in 2002 also cited al Qaeda as an inspiration, though no formal connections have been established.
Recent events indicate al Qaeda still poses a significant threat to the U.S. and its allies. For the time being it seems likely that cells of the group will attack so-called soft targets in the Middle East, North Africa, and perhaps central Asia. The New York Times reported on May 17, 2003 that al Qaeda’s had reestablished operational bases and recruitment efforts in Kenya, Sudan, Pakistan and Chechnya. The Saudi government believes there are still two or three cells still operating inside the kingdom.
There have been no attacks on U.S. soil since September 11, but al Qaeda appears to be persevering in its efforts. The New York Times quotes a U.S. intelligence official who says that six Arab men have been secretly arrested in the U.S. on suspicion that they were scouting new targets to hit. The chief worry remains that al Qaeda will somehow obtain weapons of mass destruction and strike a major blow within the U.S. |
