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H. Thomas Hayden
recently concluded over 35 years of service,
which included the Agency for International
Development, the Marine Corps, defense industry
and the Pentagon. His specialties are Intelligence,
Counterinsurgency Operations, Counter-terrorism,
and Joint Concepts Development and Experimentation.
His Marine Corps assignments have included
command of two separate battalions; AC/S G-2,
4th MARDIV & AC/S G-2 FMFEurope; Branch Head,
HQMC, Special Operations and Low Intensity
Conflict (SO/LIC); Special Assistant to the
Assistant Secretary of Defense for SO/LIC;
and, Senior Program Analysts at HQMC with
the Joint Staff and DoD at the Pentagon. Overseas
assignments included Vietnam, Japan & Okinawa,
Europe, Central America, Saudi Arabia and
Kuwait, Somalia, Singapore, Philippines, and
Colombia. He has an MBA (Pepperdine) and an
MA in International Relations (University
of Southern California). He has written two
books and is working on a third.
Thomas
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January 21, 2005
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The Iraqi Constitutional Assembly elections on 30 January will not be the first of its kind during an insurgency. Three major insurgencies where presidential elections were held come to mind -- the Huks in the Philippines, the Viet Cong in Vietnam, and the communist in El Salvador.
A full-bore counterinsurgency program is a complex total civil-military campaign that takes time in the best of circumstances. The main thread of every counterinsurgency is gaining at least a modicum of public support. Defeating the insurgents, civic action, reconstruction, and development are essential in showing the people that the government is really interested in them. However, holding elections is a major step in convincing the people that they have a stake in the government and ending the insurgency.
The 1949 elections in the Philippines had been fraudulent and were exploited by the communist Huks. However, the emergence of a unified campaign to hold genuinely free elections in 1951 caught the Huks by surprise. The obvious honesty of the 1951 election had a dramatic effect on the population and underscored the fact that under a constitution, the government belonged to the people. Unfortunately, as often happens in underdeveloped countries, the elected President Quirino was more interested in corruption and personal wealth than he was in helping his people. The next election in 1953, was won by Ramon Magsaysay and under his leadership the insurgency in the Philippines was defeated.
In the Republic of Vietnam, the first seriously contested presidential election in Vietnamese history was conducted in the middle of the communist insurgency in 1967. As was expected, Nguyen Van Thieu won the election, but the election had no measurable effect on defeating the insurgency. While the 1968 "Tet Offensive" almost totally decimated the Viet Cong, the misreading by the American press of the death and destruction caused by the war may have been a great operational victory. However, this caused an outcry in the U.S. against the war and resulted in a strategic defeat for the South Vietnamese and Allied Forces.
The three elections held in El Salvador in 1983-85 strengthened the government's claim against the insurgent's allegation of illegitimacy. These elections, again with some imperfections, were generally seen by the Salvadorans to have been reasonably honest. The communist lost standing by opposing the elections and directing weak terrorist attacks against them. The El Salvador counterinsurgency defeated the communists and had the surprising effect of causing the insurgents to lay down their arms and join in the political process. The former communist leader made a good showing in the last election, but democratic parties won the presidency and the legislature.
Even amidst intense bombings, assignations, and some calls to postpone the elections for an Interim National Assembly in Iraq, preparations for the election scheduled for 30 January are proceeding. The elections are for a proportional representation, which means that the number of seats allotted to a party or group will be proportional to the total number of votes it receives. The High Commission for Elections has cleared 226 parties and groups, with 7200 candidates for a 275-memebr Assembly. The list represents 73 political parties, 25 independent candidates and nine lists of coalition groups.
The national Assembly will select a new government replacing the interim government of Prime Minister Ayad Alawi, and draft a new constitution. The Assembly will then dissolve in favor of a new parliament, which will be elected following the promulgation of the new constitution.
The existing election law set a deadline for holding elections for 30 December 2004 but no later than 30 January 2005. Even if someone wanted to postpone the election, it would be in violation of existing law and not a good precedent for starting a new government. Barring an enormous or unforeseen event, the elections will be held as scheduled.
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The participation by millions of Iraqis living overseas could have some significance in terms of the anticipated results. It is anticipated that Iraqis living in Western countries who have had some experience with democracy may well oppose parties or groups that advocate Islamic extremists.
Islamic extremists believe that elections are apostasy -- abandonment of principles of faith. They feel that Muslims should be governed by Islamic religious laws (Shariah) as interpreted by the likes of the Iranian mullahs or Osama bin Laden.
The U.S. political and military authorities seem to have begun to understand that they must lift the occupation mentality in favor of a more realistic counterinsurgency campaign. Actionable intelligence, counterintelligence, small unit action, ambushes and counter-ambushes, and eliminating diehard insurgents will continue after the elections of 30 January. The elections are a first start to the end of the insurgency.
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© 2005 H. Thomas Hayden. All opinions
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