Email this page to friends About the Author Peter Brookes writes a weekly column on foreign policy and defense for the New York Post and is penning a book on national security affairs for McGraw Hill due out early next fall. He appears regularly on national TV and radio. Prior to joining the Heritage Foundation, Brookes served in the Bush administration as the Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense (DASD) for Asian and Pacific Affairs in the Office of Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld, where he was responsible for the development, planning, guidance and oversight of U .S. security and defense policy for 38 countries and 5 bilateral defense alliances in the Asia-Pacific region. Brookes has a distinguished military background, including active duty in support of military operations in Iraq/Kuwait (Desert Storm); Haiti (Restore Democracy); and Bosnia (Joint Endeavor). He flew reconnaissance missions in East Asia and the Persian Gulf while stationed in Japan covering military matters related to the Soviet Union, North Korea, China, Vietnam, Iran and Iraq. His personal awards and decorations include: the Joint Service Commendation Medal; the Navy Commendation Medal (3 awards); the Navy Achievement Medal; several naval and joint unit awards; the Defense Language Institute’s Kellogg Award; the Joint Chiefs of Staff service badge; and Naval Aviation Observer (NAO) wings. Sound Off! - Have an opinion about this article? Visit the discussion forum. View the Brookes Archives Related Links Military Opinions Index Get Breaking Military News Alerts Get $1004 a Month! Your service may have earned you great education benefits. Get up to $1004 per month to pay for your undergraduate, graduate or technical degree. Find out about military-friendly schools today.

December 13, 2004

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Despite the prospect of increased violence, Iraq's interim government is holding firm on its commitment to hold the first post-Saddam elections next month.

But what most people don't realize is that the January 30 elections are only the first in a series of steps on an arduous road to a final, democratically elected Iraqi government late next year. Iraqis will vote for a temporary, 275-member national assembly in January, which will appoint new government executives, including a prime minister, president and two deputies. It also will draft a constitution.

In October, a nationwide referendum will be held to ratify the constitution. Then, with an agreed government structure in hand, Iraqis will again go to the polls next December to directly elect a final government for a yet-to-be-specified term.

The whole process is fraught with challenges and potential pitfalls that may make Homer's "Odyssey" seem like a stroll around the block. On the positive side, Iraqi political parties are forming, and people are registering to vote. After repeated threats to boycott, even the Sunnis, a minority that dominated government under Hussein, are reluctantly throwing their electoral hat in the ring.

On the downside, January's election will create winners and losers among the Kurds, Sunni and Shi'a and turn the country's political order on its ear.

Considering the strong ethnic, cultural and religious traditions of these three groups, some might try to use ethnic or religious-based violence to redress their losses at the ballot box.

Iraq isn't Bosnia, but one can't help but remember the 1991-95 Bosnian nightmare. Religious and ethnic strife among Muslim and Christian Croats, Bosnians and Serbs over the political future of Bosnia-Herzegovina left 200,000 dead and displaced more than 2 million refugees.

No surprise that political transitions can encourage nationalist fervor and ethnic conflict. If Iraq's democratization is not handled properly over the next year, the country will face the prospect of more nationalist violence - or even civil war.

Several goals must be pursued:

Grow the economy

History teaches that poverty can fuel political discontent and nationalism. The rise of Nazi Germany is instructive. Iraqis must have greater employment opportunities as soon as possible. Economic reconstruction, including short-term aid to troubled areas, must move forward quickly.

Promote federalism

Failing to use power-sharing arrangements (which level economic, social and political inequities) and federalism (which promotes national unity) could lead to secessionist movements and military conflict.

Limited self-rule, like in the American state system, will allow the major groups to retain some regional autonomy while contributing to the development of the Iraqi state.

Establishing a democratic system that can accommodate Iraq's different ethnic and religious groups, previously kept in check by strongman Saddam Hussein, is key to establishing enduring peace and political stability.

If not planned and executed properly, the new Iraqi political system may prove less capable of providing peace, stability and prosperity than the thuggish regime it replaced. That would be a tragedy.

Moving Iraq from despotism to democracy is unquestionably the right thing to do. Unfortunately, there is no universal roadmap to guide governments through such a passage.

Iraq's political transformation is going to be no small challenge. But as tough as it might be, a shining, new democracy in the Muslim world - to match the unheralded success in Afghanistan - would be a priceless gift to international security.

Peter Brookes is a Heritage Foundation senior fellow.
E-mail: peterbrookes@heritage.org

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© 2004 News World Communications, Inc. All rights reserved. Mr. Brookes is a Senior Fellow for National Security Affairs at The Heritage Foundation in Washington, DC. This column originally appeared in the New York Post. All opinions expressed in this article are the author's and do not necessarily reflect those of Military.com.